What a day to bet on MLB home run odds — especially if you're playing FanDuel Sportsbook's Dinger Tuesday promotion!
Ballpark Pal's Park Factors has three matchups upgraded by 27% or more for homers today, including games at Coors Field and Great American Ball Park — and that is exactly where I'm putting my focus at.
A reminder of how Dinger Tuesday works: Place one $25 bet on a player to hit a home run... and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game — regardless of who hits 'em.
So let's look at the MLB odds today for these two homer-happy stadiums, while also breaking down the pitcher/hitter matchups and shouting out the best MLB player props values with my best Dinger Tuesday plays for August 15.
Best home run odds and props for FanDuel Dinger Tuesday
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds (Great American Ball Park, 6:40 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Logan Allen (LHP) |
1.08 | 11.2 | 37.3 | 8.6 |
 Graham Ashcraft (RHP) |
1.35 | 16.1 | 29.9 | 6.6 |
This is BP Pal's top-upgraded park today for homers (+41%), with temperatures in the high 70s and winds roughly 10-14 mph lowing out to left-center field.
So, even though the Cleveland Guardians are the least powerful team in baseball right now, they're worth a look against Cincinnati Reds righty Graham Ashcraft, who has allowed a long ball in four of his last five starts.
Meanwhile, Guardians southpaw Logan Allen has coughed up five dingers in his last four starts, gets hit hard by righties, and faces a Reds team that has eight home runs in four games against lefty starters this month.
Hitters to target - Guardians
- Andres Gimenez, LH (+680) - Hitting .400, with a 44.4% fly-ball rate and two homers off RHP this month.
- Jose Ramirez, SH (+300) - Hitting just .238 vs. RHP in August, but is Cleveland's more fearsome hitter and has highest BAT X HR projection for all Guardians hitters.
- Kole Calhoun, LH (+600) - Hitting .333 with a 47.1% FB rate against righties since getting recalled 10 days ago.
- Myles Straw, RH (+830) - Has a whopping 60% fly-ball rate against righties in August, with a .294 average.
Hitters to target - Reds
- Spencer Steer, RH (+440) - Tied for highest HR projection amongst Reds hitters today for BAT X, hitting .267 with a 50% FB rate against lefties in August.
- Matt McLain, RH (+420) - The other bat with best HR projection for Reds, he's hitting .313 with a 33.3% fly-ball rate off southpaws this month.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand, RH (+520) - Hitting .308 off lefties over last two weeks, with 30% of contact going in the air.
- Elly De La Cruz, SH (+520) - Only hitting .188 off lefties in August, but has a 50% fly-ball rate and prodigious power.
- Tyler Stephenson, RH (+600) - Has a 37.5% FB rate, with one homer in nine AB against lefties this month.
Best betting value: Christian Encarnacion-Strand (+520)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies (Coors Field, 8:40 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Joe Mantiply (LHP)* |
1.80 | 21.1 | 30.2 | 14.3 |
 Ty Blach (LHP) |
1.13 | 11.8 | 38.3 | 5.9 |
*Will be used as an opener
The second-ranked stadium for home runs today per BP Pal (+35%), temperatures are expected to be in the 90s for this game, with the winds also blowing out to left field.
We saw three home runs in yesterday's matchup, where Mantiply threw 11 pitches for the Arizona Diamondbacks, recording zero outs while giving up three hits and three runs. He'll work as the opener today, and while the game will start as a lefty, looking as the D-Backs bullpen we should expect the Colorado Rockies hitters to almost entirely face righties — plus Arizona's bullpen has the fourth-highest HR/9 in August.
On the other side, Blach is coming off a strong start against the Dodgers, but the lefty has allowed a HR in two straight outings and will face a number of dangerous Arizona hitters from the right side.
Hitters to target - Diamondbacks
- Christian Walker, RH (+280) - Hitting .500, with two home runs and a 33.3% FB rate, in 12 AB vs. lefties in August.
- Ketel Marte, SH (+360) - Also has a 33.3% FB rate off lefties this month, and has second-highest HR projection among Arizona hitters today by the BAT X.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr., RH (+450) - Hitting .300 off lefties this month, with a 25% fly-ball rate.
- Tommy Pham, RH (+430) - Hitting just .182 off lefties since joining Arizona, but his HR/AB is almost 5x better vs. LHP than righties.
- Corbin Carroll, LH (+450) - Hitting .313, with a 30.8% FB rate, against same-side pitchers over the last two weeks.
Hitters to target - Rockies
- Ezequiel Tovar, RH (+450) - Hitting .333 with a 40% FB rate and three homers off righties this month.
- Nolan Jones, LH (+460) - Hitting .308 off righties in August, with a 29.4% FB rate and plenty of raw power.
- Ryan McMahon, LH (+400) - Sporting a 42.9% FB rate off righties last two weeks, is also the current Colorado HR leader.
- Elias Diaz, RH (+440) - Highest HR projection for Rockies today by the BAT X, hitting .261 with a 42.9% FB rate off righties this month.
Best betting value: Ketel Marte (+360)
Last week's recap:
- COL at MIL: Five HR
- SF at LAA: Two HR
- Game with most HR: WAS/PHI, ATL/PIT (Six HR)
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