The Cleveland Guardians and San Diego Padres play the finale of a three-game interleague series at Petco Park in San Diego on Thursday evening.
The Guardians have been treated rather rudely by the Padres in the first two games of the series. Cleveland looks to salvage something before heading to Arizona to face the first-place Diamondbacks for three.
The Padres have inched to within a game of .500, outscoring the Guardians 11-3 in the first two games.
Can the Guardians find the winning combination on Thursday, or will the Padres sweep the American League Central representatives out of town? We’ll discuss in our MLB picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Padres on Thursday, June 15.
Guardians vs Padres odds
Guardians vs Padres predictions
Cleveland had won four of the final five games of a six-game homestand, climbing back into the mix in the American League Central. But two losses in San Diego have pushed the Guardians back to 3 1/2 games out of first place behind the Minnesota Twins.
The Guardians were on the verge of working down its ugly run differential, which was down to minus-18 prior to Tuesday. However, it’s back to minus-26 after the two losses, although that’s still second-best in the AL Central.
The shutout victory for the Padres behind RHP Michael Wacha & Co. was third shutout by San Diego pitching in 10 games since June 3. It was also the sixth blanking of the season for the Padres pitching staff.
It’s a battle of southpaws in the series finale, as Logan Allen (3-2, 3.31 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) squares off against Ryan Weathers (1-4, 4.93 ERA, 1.49 WHIP), son of former major leaguer David Weathers.
The good news for Cleveland is that it has handled the twig well against lefties, going 6-1 in the past seven tries against southpaws, while going 6-2 in the past eight interleague road games vs. LHPs, too.
For San Diego, it is also 4-0 in the past four against lefties, although it is just 1-4 in the past five interleague home games vs. LHPs.
Allen has lasted at least six innings in each of his past four starts, posting three quality starts during the span. He’ll help pitch Cleveland to a victory in Thursday evening’s game and get the Guardians back on track before heading to the desert.
My best bet: Guardians moneyline (+122 at FanDuel)
Guardians vs Padres same-game parlay
Guardians moneyline
Allen Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Josh Naylor To Hit a Single
Jose Ramirez To Hit a Single
I really like the Guardians because of the pitching matchup, as Allen is a little more dependable than Weathers, especially since he has been chewing up the innings.
In addition, I am going to go Under on strikeouts for Allen. Even though he has lasted at least six innings in four straight outings, he has exactly four strikeouts in three of those assignments. Power pitching just isn’t a big part of his game.
In addition, the Padres have struck out 589 times across 67 games, or an average of 8.8 per game. San Diego is tied for No. 15 in the majors with the Texas Rangers, so they strike out a little bit, but aren’t a free-swinging club for Allen to take advantage of.
For Cleveland, Jose Ramirez went 1-for-4 with a run scored in Wednesday’s game to push his hitting streak to seven games. Josh Naylor also collected a hit to increase the longest active streak in the majors to 13 games.
Playing each of those hitters to grab a single is worth adding to your same-game parlay, along with the Guardians on the moneyline and Allen Under on strikeouts for a +1291 opportunity.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Guardians vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Guardians haven’t had a lot of losses in a row lately, although Cleveland has dropped the first two in this series. Cleveland is 6-2 in the past eight games following a loss, while going 22-7 in the past 29 in Game 3 of a series.
The Padres have won five of their past six games overall, but San Diego is just 3-7 in the past 10 in Game 3 of a series. It is also 1-4 in the past five interleague home games vs. LHPs.
For the total, Cleveland has cashed the Under in six of the past seven against NL West foes, which is not only important here, but also heading into the weekend in Arizona.
San Diego has cashed the Under at an 8-2-1 clip in the past 11 against AL Central foes, while going 11-3 in the past 14 of Game 3 of a series. The Under is 5-0 in the past five at home vs. LHP for the Padres.
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Trend to know
The Guardians are 6-1 in their past seven games against southpaws. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Padres
Guardians vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, June 15, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Logan Allen (3-2, 3.31 ERA): The left-hander has lasted at least 5 2/3 innings in five straight starts, and he has allowed just five homers overall in 51 2/3 innings. The southpaw has had tremendous control, too, walking only 15 batters this season, although he has issued exactly two walks in each of the past three starts.
Ryan Weathers (1-4, 4.93 ERA): The son of David Weathers has managed a 5.33 ERA in 27 career starts and 41 overall appearances. His 1.49 WHIP this season is very close to his 1.45 career WHIP. At home, Weathers is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA with four walks, eight strikeouts, and a dismal .346 opponent batting average in 12 2/3 innings.
