The Cleveland Guardians open the season on the West Coast with a game against the Seattle Mariners tonight.
Both teams are coming off divisional titles and return with rosters mostly intact, if not upgraded.
Seattle has an edge in the starting pitching matchup and brings in an absolutely stacked lineup, which is why my Guardians vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks call for it to cover at home on Thursday, March 26.
Guardians vs Mariners predictions
Guardians vs Mariners best bet: Mariners -1.5 (+130)
The Seattle Mariners were the fourth-best hitting team with a 113 OPS in 2025 and have been even better this spring.
After scoring 4.7 runs per game last year, Seattle averaged 5.5 in spring training.
Logan Gilbert was effective as usual when healthy last season, finishing with a 3.44 ERA and an elite 32.3% strikeout rate. The Cleveland Guardians ranked 28th in scoring last year, so facing a top-shelf starter is not ideal for this set of bats.
Guardians starter Tanner Bibee had the worst year of his career. He didn’t find a solution this spring, giving up six homers in six starts with a 6.65 ERA.
COVERS INTEL: Bibee’s fastball whiff rate dropped from 21.3% in 2024 to 13.2% last year, and also declined for his cutter, sinker, and curve.
Guardians vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Mariners -1.5
Mariners first-inning moneyline
Mariners team total Over 3.5
The Mariners added one of baseball's top leadoff batters in Brendan Donovan. He’ll get on base ahead of MVP candidates Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez, which could result in a quick knockout of Bibee.
Bibee allowed 27 homers last year and failed to strike out a batter an inning, a trend that continued into the spring. The Cleveland bullpen is missing injured setup man Hunter Gaddis, and Matt Festa struggled this spring, posting a 6.75 ERA.
Guardians vs Mariners SGP
- Mariners -1.5
- Mariners first-inning moneyline
- Mariners team total Over 3.5
Guardians vs Mariners home run pick: Cal Raleigh (+275)
There are matchup-based picks, and then there are ones where you don’t need to dive too deeply into the numbers. If anyone is going to homer in this game, it will be MLB’s reigning home-run leader playing in his home opener. Bibee’s struggles with the long ball make this an even better bet. He was even worse on the road, giving up twice as many home runs and an OPS 200 points higher than in home games. Randy Arozarena is the only member of the heart of Seattle’s order to homer against him, but that could easily change after tonight.
Guardians vs Mariners odds
- Moneyline: Cleveland +158 | Seattle -188
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-152) | Seattle -1.5 (+126)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-122) | Under 6.5 (+100)
Guardians vs Mariners trend
The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Mariners.
How to watch Guardians vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Thursday, March 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Guardians TV, Mariners TV |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Tanner Bibee (2025: 12-11, 4.24 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Logan Gilbert (2025: 6-6, 3.44 ERA) |
Guardians vs Mariners latest injuries
Guardians vs Mariners weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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