Friday’s nightcap features the second installment of the season-opening four-game series between the AL Central’s Cleveland Guardians and AL West’s Seattle Mariners.
Seattle shut out Cleveland on Opening Day, walking away with a 3-0 victory on their home diamond after the club recorded nine strikeouts while allowing just four hits.
Will the Mariners take care of business once again, or can the Guardians pull off the upset and grab their first win of the season? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Guardians vs Mariners on Friday, March 31.
Guardians vs Mariners odds
Guardians vs Mariners predictions
Taking the mound for the Mariners in this contest is left-handed veteran Robbie Ray. Returning to the American League has been monumental for Ray, who started to see his performance drop rapidly following his dominating 2017 season with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
In 2021, Ray went 13-7 with the Toronto Blue Jays with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP while accumulating 248 strikeouts. He led the American League in all three of those categories while capturing the Cy Young Award. While he took a slight step back in 2022, he still put together a strong campaign and went 12-12 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.
A strikeout machine once again, Ray accumulated 212 punchouts over 189 innings. In fact, he ranked in the 78th percentile in K%, and the 80th percentile in Whiff%.
2022 marked the seventh straight season that Ray posted a K% north of 27%, which speaks to the most dominant aspect of his game. In this contest, we are going to target his strikeout prop, which can be found at plus-money for Ray to go Over 5.5.
The reason that this line is only at 5.5 is that the Guardians are typically a contact-first team that avoids striking out. However, on Opening Day, this lineup struck out nine times, including six times against Seattle’s starting pitcher, Luis Castillo.
Through four career appearances against Cleveland, Ray is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Another reason that the line is only at 5.5 is that this current Guardians roster only possesses a 17.4 K% and a 24.5 Whiff% through 86 career plate appearances against Ray.
However, with a solid fastball that sets up a devastating slider and sinker, Ray has made a career out of striking out opposing batters, even a lineup that is typically good at avoiding the punchout like Cleveland's is.
My best bet: Ray Over 5.5 strikeouts (+102 at BetRivers)
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Guardians vs Mariners moneyline analysis
I would lean towards the Mariners' moneyline in this contest, but would rather just back Ray than lay -162 in a game between two relatively even teams. Seattle’s biggest edge in this contest is the starting pitching, which is the reason for this line and why I would rather just back the pitcher himself.
On the other side, right-hander Hunter Gaddis is slated to take the mound for the Guardians. The 24-year-old Georgia native only made two starts in his debut season last year, both of which went terribly.
In his debut against the Houston Astros, Gaddis allowed eight runs on seven hits through three and one-third innings. Gaddis followed that performance up a month later by allowing seven runs on eight hits through four innings against the Chicago White Sox, ending his inaugural campaign with an 0-2 record and 18.41 ERA.
Guardians vs Mariners Over/Under analysis
Now, to be fairer to Gaddis, a two-game sample size in a debut season against the Astros and White Sox is not enough to judge what type of pitcher he is going to be. The 2019 fifth-round draft pick looked strong in Spring Training this year, posting a 2.77 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 13 innings.
Granted, Spring Training means almost nothing, but it is still much more promising to see those results compared to what happened in 2022. I would lean towards the Under in this contest, but do not trust Gaddis whatsoever to pick a total.
Ray is trustworthy and should do a decent job shutting down a Cleveland lineup that does not thrive in hitting the long ball. With Gaddis’ improved spring, it is not out of the question that he starts this season off on a much stronger note, but those disastrous results from last season still linger too heavily to lock in the Under in this contest.
Guardians vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Friday, March 31, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Great Lakes, Root Sports |
Guardians vs Mariners betting preview
Starting pitchers
Hunter Gaddis (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Gaddis’ improved Spring Training earned him this spot in the Guardians rotation, along with the injury to Triston McKenzie. However, his underlying metrics were just as bad as his surface-level stats last year. Through those two starts, he posted a .327 xBA, a .787 xSLG, and a .619 xwOBA.
Robbie Ray (0-0, 0.00 ERA): We should expect another strong season from the 2021 AL Cy Young award winner, who is hoping to be a big part of Seattle’s championship push this season. Despite taking a small step back in 2022, Ray still looked like a strong pitcher and solid No. 2 guy. Last season, he ranked in the 61st percentile or higher in xERA, xwOBA, xBA, K%, Whiff%, and Chase Rate.
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Trend to know
Robbie Ray recorded at least six strikeouts in eight of his last 11 regular season starts in 2022. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Mariners
