Guardians vs Blue Jays Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Books are curiously tabbing the Blue Jays as slim favorites today, and despite Carlos Carrasco on the mound, our MLB picks feel that creates value in backing the Guardians.

Tom Oldfield - Betting Analyst at
Tom Oldfield • Betting Analyst
Jun 15, 2024 • 11:36 ET • 4 min read
Carlos Carrasco MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Different series, same old story. The Toronto Blue Jays’ miserable offense served up another dud yesterday against the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians, who look well placed to add to the pain at Rogers Centre this afternoon.

Logan Allen and the Cleveland bullpen limited Toronto to just three hits last night as the Guardians landed a 3-1 victory. While the Blue Jays are head-scratching favorites to hit back today, my Guardians vs. Blue Jays prediction has its doubts.

Check out my free MLB picks for a closer look at this June 15 matchup.

Guardians vs Blue Jays prediction

My best bet
Guardians moneyline (+100 at ProLine+)

My analysis
There’s a lot to like about a Guardians team that’s won four of its last five contests and has a +92 run differential in 2024. So, the sight of the Blue Jays as favorites this afternoon, after getting absolutely nothing going at the plate yesterday, required a double-take.

Clearly the prospect of Carlos Carrasco and his 5.50 ERA are a big driver for those odds, but we’ve seen very little evidence that this Toronto line-up can cash in against arguably the Guardians’ weakest pitcher this season.

The hosts have been held to three runs or fewer a whopping 29 times in 2024, and a tense trade deadline is looming.

Yes, there’s logic in preferring this afternoon’s matchup for the Blue Jays. After all, Carrasco hasn’t got out of the fifth inning in either of his starts in June after returning from a neck injury.

But he’s a wily veteran who had a 3.00 ERA in three outings in May — and even if the Toronto bats make some noise, the visitors should feel confident about keeping pace. It’s set up as a bullpen day for the Blue Jays, with Trevor Richards getting things started and a string of relievers likely to follow.

That’s hardly daunting for a talented Guardians line-up that posted nine hits in last night’s victory. With the everyday potential for fireworks at the top of the order, Cleveland ranks fourth in the American League in RBIs while averaging five runs per game.

The numbers continue to pile up in the visitors’ favor. The Guardians are 23-15 on the road this year, they’ve won four of their last five matchups against the Blue Jays and they’ve covered the first five run line in 33 of their last 53 games. At plus odds to pad the win column today, I like their chances.

Blue Jays star player prop

My best bet
George Springer Over 0.5 RBIs (+175 at ProLine+)

With a .143 average in June and three hitless efforts in his past four games, a George Springer RBI prop isn’t an obvious choice, but I like this matchup for the Toronto veteran, who’s seen plenty of Carrasco in his career.

Springer has 21 at-bats under his belt against the Cleveland righty and he’s posted five hits, including two doubles. He should have a pretty good idea about the pitches he’s going to see here.

That sets the stage for a better afternoon for the Blue Jays slugger and a chance to kickstart a better finish to the month. I’m predicting he responds in style and drives in a run.

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Guardians vs Blue Jays odds

Guardians vs Blue Jays live odds

Guardians vs Blue Jays opening odds

  • Run line: Cleveland -1.5 (+165) | Toronto +1.5 (-200)
  • Moneyline: Cleveland +100 | Toronto -120
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Guardians vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis

  • I’ve already noted my surprise at the -122 price for the Blue Jays here, and it’s tough to put much faith in a team that’s hit the F5 team total Under in 11 of the last 15 games.

  • The Guardians are 6-4 in their last 10 outings and key man Josh Naylor has six hits in his past five games.

  • The Under stands out as a value play here, supported by compelling numbers. It’s 8-2 in Cleveland’s past 10 games and 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams.

  • Toronto hasn’t scored more than four runs in any of its last four matchups while wasting some quality pitching starts. 

Guardians vs Blue Jays trend

The Blue Jays have hit the team total Under in 34 of their last 57 contests. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Blue Jays

Guardians vs Blue Jays game info

Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date: Saturday, 6-15-2024
First pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Ohio, Sportsnet
Guardians starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
(2-5, 5.50 ERA)
Blue Jays starting pitcher: Trevor Richards
(1-0, 3.31 ERA)

Guardians vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Guardians vs Blue Jays weather

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