The Philadelphia Phillies are on a roll right now, taking eight of their last nine games and eyeing a sweep of the San Francisco Giants. That said, an injury to Trea Turner is poised to alter the course of their month and could put them in a compromising position on Sunday.
With Logan Webb toeing the slab for San Francisco, might the visitors have a say in the proceedings on Sunday Night Baseball?
Let's dive right into it with our in-depth MLB picks and Giants vs. Phillies predictions on Sunday, May 5. And don't miss our Sunday Night Baseball prop picks!
Giants vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Over 8 (+104 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Logan Webb’s season has been a bit of mystery. He began by getting shelled in Spring Training and allowing seven earned runs across his first two outings.
Since then, things have generally gone much better. Even with a horrid outing last turn against the Red Sox, he’s still the proud owner of a 2.98 ERA. His WHIP is up near levels we haven’t seen in years, however, with a slightly higher walk rate and a disastrous .306 expected batting average. Webb is still rolling up grounders at a near-60% rate, but we could simply be seeing some correction in the numbers with his poor hard-hit rate from a season ago translating over here.
The tough part here is that the Philadelphia Phillies rank ninth in hard-hit rate this season and they’ve been able to limit strikeouts this season, which has made them a very difficult team to face. Webb’s strikeout numbers have never been great, but they’ve taken a dive this season. With a few more walks creeping in, the outlook for Philly is a positive one.
The Phillies have had a spicy .291/.356/.400 slash line against ground-ballers this season, so even without Turner they should still manage to produce some positive results on Sunday night.
On the flip side, the San Francisco Giants have performed much better against fly-ball pitchers this season and will encounter Taijuan Walker, who’s been trending much closer to that classification over the past couple of seasons.
Walker was done in by fly balls and a pair of homers in his first start of the season, and against a team which performs much better away from San Francisco on account of their affinity for hitting the ball in the air, the conditions for offense should be strong on either side here.
Giants vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8
Logan Webb Under 5.5 strikeouts
Matt Chapman 2+ total bases
Strikeouts are the name of the game in this same-game parlay. Webb’s totals have been plummeting from an already-middling range, and the Phillies have not only limited the strikeouts at a solid 22.3% clip this season, but have improved upon that mark over the last week of play. Webb will look to get outs via contact, and considering I don’t think it’ll go very well for him, I have to take the Under in this spot, which has hit in every one of his outings this year.
Then we have Matt Chapman, whose enemy over the years has been the strikeout. Walker hasn’t been able to come up with very many punchouts over the course of his career, and Chapman holds excellent numbers against “finesse” pitchers according to Baseball Reference, who get most of their outs on contact to few walks. I like him to at least go for extra bases here if he doesn’t find a home run.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Phillies odds
Giants vs Phillies live odds
Giants vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: San Francisco -1.5 | Philadelphia +1.5
- Moneyline: San Francisco -109 | Philadelphia +100
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Giants vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The line here hasn’t moved a whole lot, opening around -105 for the Phillies and remaining there as of Sunday afternoon with just a few cents of buy-in on the Giants as the day has rolled on.
- The total, meanwhile, has been trending towards the Under with the line opening up at 8 and falling down to 7.5 at most shops.
- Despite the movement, DraftKings has taken 72% of the bets and 80% of the handle on the Over here while 28% of the tickets and 33% of the cash are on the Giants to win this game.
Giants vs Phillies trend
The Giants have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.68 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Phillies
Giants vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, 5-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Logan Webb (3-2, 2.98 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Taijuan Walker (1-0, 8.53 ERA) |
Giants vs Phillies latest injuries
Giants vs Phillies weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
