Two National League wild-card hopefuls will face off in a crucial game on Wednesday afternoon as the Philadelphia Phillies host the San Francisco Giants in the finale of a three-game series.
The Phillies (69-57) have won the first two games of this series, and hold the first wild card spot in the NL. The Giants (65-61) are also in need of a win, as they are now a half-game out of the playoff picture.
Philadelphia has gotten into this position thanks to a powerful offense that has come into its own in August. We’ll take a closer look at that lineup in our free MLB picks and predictions for Giants vs. Phillies on August 23.
Giants vs Phillies odds
Giants vs Phillies predictions
After a 25-30 start to the season, the Philadelphia Phillies have been consistently excellent throughout the summer. They’ve continued that trend into August, during which Philadelphia has put up a 12-8 record to grab control of the NL wild card race.
The Philadelphia lineup has led this charge. In August, the Phillies are averaging 6.1 runs per game while hitting .277 with a .865 OPS and 40 homers in just 20 games.
Bryce Harper may be the generational superstar at the heart of the order, but Brandon Marsh, Bryson Stott, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber have also been able to hit and hit with power. Despite some early struggles, Trea Turner is now contributing at the plate as well, hitting .333 over his last 10 games.
The Phillies will get another chance to flex their offensive muscles on Wednesday against San Francisco Giants starter Alex Cobb. While Cobb has solid numbers on the year, he’s been going through a rough patch this month. In four starts in August, Cobb has put up a 7.59 ERA over 21 1/3 innings of work, allowing six home runs during that span.
The Phillies have also been a much better team at home this year, boasting a 36-24 record at Citizens Bank Park in 2023. Citizens Bank is well-known for high-scoring games in general and has the sixth-highest park factor for home runs in the majors. Philadelphia is currently averaging 4.90 runs per game at CBP, compared to 4.57 on the road.
The Phillies have even had success against Cobb this year, albeit in limited time. Back in May — when Cobb had a 1.70 ERA — Philadelphia faced Cobb in San Francisco, scoring two runs on five hits and five walks over just 3 1/3 innings.
Since that time, Cobb has fallen off while the Philadelphia lineup has only gotten better. The Phillies should be able to put up runs today to support starter Michael Lorenzen. I’m betting on the Phillies to hit the Over on their team total this afternoon.
My best bet: Phillies team total Over 4.5 runs (+102 at FanDuel)
Giants vs Phillies same-game parlay
Phillies TT o4.5
Phillies ML
o8.5 runs
Harper to record a hit
For today’s same-game parlay, I’m combining four bets that rely on the Phillies offense to carry the load. That begins with my best bet: Philadelphia to hit the Over on its team total of 4.5 runs.
Along with that, I’m picking the Phillies to win this game at home. I also think that the total will go Over 8.5 runs, as I don’t expect Cobb nor Lorenzen to shut down the opposing lineup tonight.
Finally, I wanted to pick a player to get a hit to add a little extra value to this parlay. I’ve chosen Harper, as the Phillies superstar has recorded a hit in five of his last six games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Giants vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Phillies opened today’s game as a -125 favorite. That line has widened, and as of noon on Wednesday, Philadelphia -130 is the most common (and best) line you’ll find at sites. You can get +115 on the Giants at some books if you shop around.
Neither of these teams has done much for bettors on the moneyline this year. The Phillies have lost more than two units on the year, while San Francisco is down about 4.5 units for backers this season.
The Phillies are the better team overall and have been in better form over the past couple of weeks. They’ve also won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 14-7. With Cobb struggling right now and the Philadelphia lineup hitting better than ever, I’m leaning toward the Phillies today.
The total on today’s game opened at nine runs. Most books have stuck with that number, though you can also find 8.5 as the main line at some sites. You can get even money on the Over at nine runs flat, while you’ll struggle to do better than -115 on the Under.
There are signs that point to the Over today. I’ve already broken down Cobb’s struggles, but Lorenzen is also coming off a start in which he lasted less than four innings. The Phillies are hitting as well as anyone in the majors right now, and this game is taking place in a park that’s friendly to batters.
I’m ultimately leaning hard towards the Over today, even at the full nine runs.
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Trend to know
Philadelphia has scored at least seven runs in four of its past six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Phillies
Giants vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Wednesday, August 23, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSBA, NBCSP |
Starting pitchers
Alex Cobb (6-5, 3.75 ERA): Cobb enjoyed an excellent first half of the 2023 season, earning himself his first career All-Star Game appearance as a result. But over the last month, his numbers have come back in line with what we’ve come to expect from him throughout his career. The 35-year-old last pitched on August 17 against the Atlanta Braves, giving up four runs on eight hits in 5.2 innings of work.
Michael Lorenzen (7-8, 3.57 ERA): Dealt from Detroit to the City of Brotherly Love at the trade deadline, Lorenzen achieved a career highlight in just his second start for Philadelphia, throwing a no-hitter against Washington on August 9. Lorenzen was less effective in his most recent start, as the Nationals touched him up for seven runs (six earned) on eight hits over 3 1/3 innings on August 18.
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