We've got another busy day of baseball as we hit the dog days of summer just ahead of the trade deadline.
Our MLB expert picks are eyeing two high-scoring clashes, including the Battle of Ohio between the Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds and the nightcap in Hollywood with the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers. We're also targeting a pair of moneylines in the early-evening slate.
Let's dive in with our full MLB picks for Wednesday, July 29.
- UPDATE: Added Over 8.5 for tonight's Guardians vs. Reds game.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: SEA/LAD o9.5 |
-104 |
 Jon Metler: NYY ML |
-133 |
 Joe Osborne: TB ML |
-133 |
 Jason Wilson: CLE/CIN o8.5 |
-117 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Mariners vs Dodgers Over 9.5
Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket
THE BAT makes this total one of the biggest edges on the board, projecting 11.88 runs with a fair price around -150.
The Seattle Mariners burned both their closer and primary setup man in last night's 7-6 win, a game that featured 23 hits and eight home runs at Dodger Stadium.
The Los Angeles Dodgers aren't in much better shape, with only a handful of trustworthy right-handed bullpen options (Evan Phillips, Brock Stewart, and Edgardo Henriquez) behind lefty starter Eric Lauer, who projects for around a 90-pitch leash.
The conditions also favor offense. It's expected to be around 80 degrees with the wind blowing out. Shohei Ohtani may finally be breaking out of his post-break slump, and Seattle is a perfect 5-0 to the Over on its current road trip.
I'll take the best +EV total on the board with Lauer on the mound and Seattle missing its top bullpen arms.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Mariners.TV/SportsNet LA
Jon Metler's expert pick: Yankees moneyline
Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket
Cam Schlittler isn't just one of the favorites to win the American League Cy Young Award — he's the favorite.
The Chicago White Sox's projected lineup is expected to feature seven left-handed hitters, many of whom are young and will be seeing Schlittler for the first time. That's a matchup I want to target.
Schlittler excels at elevating his four-seam fastball on the inner half against lefties, consistently tying hitters up and preventing them from extending their hands. It's a major reason his four-seam fastball has a +15 run value.
Young left-handed hitters often struggle to handle that combination of velocity and location, undercutting the pitch and producing harmless fly balls instead of hard contact.
The Yankees are trading as a 57-cent favorite on Polymarket, but I make them closer to 61 cents. That edge is enough for me to hit the button.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Amazon Prime Video, CHSN
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Rays moneyline
Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket
The Tampa Bay Rays are in a great spot to take care of business at home, where they've racked up an MLB-best 38 wins this season.
Like a lot of us, Texas Rangers lefty MacKenzie Gore gets hammered when he travels, posting a 6.02 ERA on the road and surrendering five earned runs in each of his away starts this month.
That's a concern against a Tampa Bay lineup that consistently does its best work at Tropicana Field.
Even if Gore keeps it close early, he's backed by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA in July.
On the other side, it's a bullpen day for the Rays, but that's not a bad thing! Tampa Bay's bullpen ranks among the league's best in both ERA and FIP this month, making a reliever carousel far less concerning than it sounds.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: RSN, Rays.TV
Jason Wilson's expert pick: Guardians vs Reds Over 8.5
Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket
Cincinnati Reds right-hander Brady Singer has been one of baseball's worst starters. His 0.6 WAR at FanGraphs is tied for seventh-worst among starting pitchers with at least 100 innings under their belts this season. It's easy to see why.
Singer's 4.53 ERA is bad, but his expected ERA (5.02) suggests things should be even worse. He's averaging 91.3 mph on his fastball (eighth percentile), and it's getting hammered. Even a lineup as inconsistent as the Cleveland Guardians can make him pay, especially with Jose Ramirez healthy and Chase DeLauter slashing .310/.371/.517 with four home runs and six doubles since the start of July.
The Reds bullpen is also unreliable, owning a 4.53 ERA as a unit with the league's worst walk rate (12.8%) among relief corps. So if Singer limits the damage, which is a dubious scenario, the bullpen hasn't exactly held things together.
But Joey Cantillo will serve up his own share of problems for Cleveland, especially when the likes of Sal Stewart and Elly De La Cruz step in against him. They've combined for 14 home runs off left-handed pitchers, and Elly is slashing .326/.398/.663 in the split while Stewart is at .284/.387/.526.
Finally, Great American Ballpark is seeing some of the best hitting conditions on the slate, according to BallparkPal, making Singer and Cantillo's night even less positive. For them, anyway. It suits our purposes just fine.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Guardians.TV, Reds.TV
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| NYY ML | -145 |
| Read analysis in our Yankees vs. White Sox predictions | |
| LAD -1.5 | +120 |
| Read analysis in our Mariners vs. Dodgers predictions | |
| ATL ML | -121 |
| Read analysis in our Braves vs. Mets Game 1 predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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