We've got another busy day of baseball as we hit the dog days of summer just ahead of the trade deadline.
Our MLB expert picks are eyeing a high-scoring clash between the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers in the nightcap, while targeting a pair of moneylines earlier in the evening.
Let's dive in with our full MLB picks for Wednesday, July 29.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: SEA/LAD o9.5 |
-104 |
 Jon Metler: NYY ML |
-133 |
 Joe Osborne: TB ML |
-133 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Mariners vs Dodgers Over 9.5
Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket
THE BAT makes this total one of the biggest edges on the board, projecting 11.88 runs with a fair price around -150.
The Seattle Mariners burned both their closer and primary setup man in last night's 7-6 win, a game that featured 23 hits and eight home runs at Dodger Stadium.
The Los Angeles Dodgers aren't in much better shape, with only a handful of trustworthy right-handed bullpen options (Evan Phillips, Brock Stewart, and Edgardo Henriquez) behind lefty starter Eric Lauer, who projects for around a 90-pitch leash.
The conditions also favor offense. It's expected to be around 80 degrees with the wind blowing out. Shohei Ohtani may finally be breaking out of his post-break slump, and Seattle is a perfect 5-0 to the Over on its current road trip.
I'll take the best +EV total on the board with Lauer on the mound and Seattle missing its top bullpen arms.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Mariners.TV/SportsNet LA
Jon Metler's expert pick: Yankees moneyline
Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket
Cam Schlittler isn't just one of the favorites to win the American League Cy Young Award — he's the favorite.
The Chicago White Sox's projected lineup is expected to feature seven left-handed hitters, many of whom are young and will be seeing Schlittler for the first time. That's a matchup I want to target.
Schlittler excels at elevating his four-seam fastball on the inner half against lefties, consistently tying hitters up and preventing them from extending their hands. It's a major reason his four-seam fastball has a +15 run value.
Young left-handed hitters often struggle to handle that combination of velocity and location, undercutting the pitch and producing harmless fly balls instead of hard contact.
The Yankees are trading as a 57-cent favorite on Polymarket, but I make them closer to 61 cents. That edge is enough for me to hit the button.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Amazon Prime Video, CHSN
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Rays moneyline
Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket
The Tampa Bay Rays are in a great spot to take care of business at home, where they've racked up an MLB-best 38 wins this season.
Like a lot of us, Texas Rangers lefty MacKenzie Gore gets hammered when he travels, posting a 6.02 ERA on the road and surrendering five earned runs in each of his away starts this month.
That's a concern against a Tampa Bay lineup that consistently does its best work at Tropicana Field.
Even if Gore keeps it close early, he's backed by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA in July.
On the other side, it's a bullpen day for the Rays, but that's not a bad thing! Tampa Bay's bullpen ranks among the league's best in both ERA and FIP this month, making a reliever carousel far less concerning than it sounds.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: RSN, Rays.TV
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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