The Atlanta Braves sit as a -117 moneyline favorite in the first game of today's doubleheader against the New York Mets, with first pitch scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET.
While AJ Smith-Shawver will be on a short leash as he makes his first start in over a year, my Braves vs. Mets predictions are expecting the righty to give Atlanta an advantage on the hill.
Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, July 29.
Who will win Braves vs Mets today: Braves moneyline (-121)
AJ Smith-Shawver officially returns this afternoon after Tommy John surgery. His fastball sat at 97.5 mph in his final rehab start, and the right-hander posted a 1.53 ERA across five Minor League outings before getting cleared to return.
There's risk because Smith-Shawver should be on some type of pitch limit, but he was built up to 86 pitches during his rehab assignment. If he can give the Atlanta Braves four or five competitive innings, they have the better early scoring path against Sean Manaea.
The New York Mets lefty has been in poor form, posting a 5.08 FIP across his last two appearances while allowing 1.69 HR/9. He has also allowed a 42.4% hard-hit rate over the last month.
Atlanta’s bullpen is a concern, but Manaea’s struggles give the Braves enough of an offensive path to win this one.
I’ll play this pick up to -130.
COVERS INTEL: Sean Manaea has posted a 5.44 FIP over his last five starts, compared to his season mark of 4.27. He's been a lot more vulnerable lately. 
Braves vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+105)
This total sits at 8.5, and the Over has the cleaner path. Smith-Shawver’s return is encouraging for Atlanta, but he should still be on some type of pitch limit, which could force the Braves bullpen into meaningful innings.
That's a concern against a Mets lineup carrying a 127 wRC+ and .219 ISO over the last week. Atlanta’s bullpen has also struggled, posting a 5.98 xERA across its last 25 frames.
The Mets bullpen has been much better with a 2.67 FIP over the last week, but Manaea’s recent form gives the Braves a path to early offense. Atlanta is not scorching hot, but a 97 wRC+ in their last six games is enough if Manaea continues to leak hard contact.
I’ll play this pick up to -120.
- ML/RL bets: 36-49, -17.34 units
- Over/Under bets: 46-37,+2.47 units
Braves vs Mets weather
Conditions could be tricky at Citi Field this afternoon, with warm, humid air and temperatures sitting in the upper 70s. Rain risk is present during the game window, including a possible thunderstorm around mid-afternoon, so a delay is possible. If they play through, weather may slightly mute carry.
Braves vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Braves -117 | Mets +113
- Run line: Braves -1.5 (+144) | Mets +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+108) | Under 8.5 (-113)
Braves vs Mets trend
The Mets have cashed the Over in 27 of their last 50 home games for +8.25 units and a 15% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets.
How to watch Braves vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, July 29, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | BravesVision, SNY |
| Braves starting pitcher | AJ Smith-Shawver (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Sean Manaea (2-5, 4.52 ERA) |
Braves vs Mets latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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