The Cubbies staying hot at home, Matthew Liberatore involved in yet another Over, and the Red Sox offense still being stinky: Our MLB picks for today are sticking with recurring themes for Thursday's action.
Read on to see why our baseball experts are all across the board, with an Over bet, Under play, and a moneyline pick — based on prices from Polymarket.
- UPDATE: Added Neil Parker's best bet for Orioles/Marlins
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: TB/BOS u8.5 |
-113 |
 Jon Metler: CHC ML |
-178 |
 Joe Osborne: STL/SD o8 |
-108 |
 Neil Parker: MIA ML |
-117 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Rays/Red Sox Under 8.5
Price: 53¢ (-113) at Polymarket
Let’s back Jake Bennett on the mound for a second straight time after allowing just three earned runs across 29 innings between Triple-A and the big leagues this year. The Boston Red Sox offense has been dry all year and needs to relay pitch grips for an edge. Plus, the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen has been the best in baseball over the last two weeks, allowing just five runs over its last 44 innings. The 57-degree temperatures won’t help the bats either. Per THE BAT, the fair price is closer to -130.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Cubs moneyline
Price: 64¢ (-178) at Polymarket
If the Chicago Cubs want to walk off the Reds for a fourth straight game, I’ll gladly take it — but with the price we’re laying, I’d much rather see Chicago win comfortably today. The Cubs are trading at 64 cents, while I make them closer to 69-cent (-223) favorites, which still leaves enough value to back them at Wrigley Field, where they’re chasing a 15th straight home win. Those three consecutive walk-off victories also matter because Cincinnati has repeatedly been forced to burn through its high-leverage bullpen arms trying to close games out. If Rhett Lowder runs into trouble against one of the hottest offenses in baseball — especially with the wind blowing out at Wrigley — Cincy may have no choice but to lean on lower-leverage relievers to cover innings. That’s a major edge for a Cubs lineup that’s already in excellent form.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Cardinals/Padres Over 8
Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket
When Matthew Liberatore starts, Overs tend to follow. Six of his seven starts this season have gone Over the total, and this matchup sets up well for another. The San Diego Padres offense looks to be waking up, after scoring 15 runs over its last two games, while the St. Louis Cardinals rank first in OPS against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks and are second in runs per game on the road. This positions them well to make some noise vs. Michael King, who's coming off his worst start of the season. Add in shaky bullpen form — especially San Diego’s 5.24 ERA over the last two weeks — and this game has potential to light up the scoreboard.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Marlins moneyline
Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket
Miami Marlins starter Max Meyer has surrendered three runs or fewer in all seven starts, while holding opposing hitters to a pedestrian .255 wOBA and .551 OPS. So, with Baltimore Orioles lefty Cade Povich sporting a career 5.14 ERA across 208 1/3 innings, I give the Fish a huge pitching edge. Povich has also surrendered meaty 46.1% squared-up contact and 18.4% blast contact rates in 2026 — and when it comes to later in the game, Miami relievers rank seventh with a 3.45 ERA... while Baltimore enters with a 25th-ranked 4.82 mark.
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yankees ML | -135 |
| Read analysis in our Rangers vs. Yankees predictions | |
| Royals ML | -135 |
| Read analysis in our Guardians vs. Royals predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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