The New York Yankees will look to win a series this afternoon when they face the Texas Rangers.
The Rangers grabbed a bit of a surprising blowout win last night, giving them their first win of this series. That won’t repeat here.
Read all about it in my Rangers vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, May 7.
Who will win Rangers vs Yankees today: Yankees moneyline (-135)
There’s a pretty big matchup problem for MacKenzie Gore here. He’s posted a 90th-percentile strikeout rate in the early season, showing his ability to miss bats. That will give him success against parts of this New York Yankees lineup.
The rest, though, will be a problem.
He pairs his strikeout prowess with a walk rate in the Bottom 25% of the sport and a 12th-percentile barrel rate. That combo will punish him sooner or later when facing a lineup that is bottom in chase rate and Top 3 in both barrel plus hard-hit rate.
On the other side, I’m always a fan of backing Paul Blackburn — filling in for Ryan Weathers — as I view him as one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons. Why? Contact suppression. He doesn’t give up many barrels, which should play well here. I’d take this to -155.
COVERS INTEL: Blackburn’s contact suppression is best highlighted by Top-20% barrel and groundball rates.
Rangers vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-105)
Despite scoring 10 runs over the last two games, this isn’t a Rangers lineup that puts up crooked numbers by design. Blackburn’s breaking ball and offspeed pitch both grade above the 80th percentile by run value, which should provide dividends against this weak offense.
As mentioned, Gore’s strikeout ability will keep a large portion of this Yankees offense from stringing stuff together too often as well.
Texas and New York also feature two of the strongest run-suppressing bullpens in MLB, ranking 1st and 3rd, respectively, in reliever ERA.
I’d play this to -120.
- ML/RL bets: 13-12, +1.6 units
- Over/Under bets: 16-10, +7.72 units
Rangers vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Rangers +123 | Yankees -149
- Run line: Rangers +1.5 (-163) | Yankees -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Rangers vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+7.85 Units / 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Yankees.
How to watch Rangers vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Thursday, May 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 12:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | RSN, YES |
| Rangers starting pitcher | MacKenzie Gore (2-2, 4.67 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Paul Blackburn (1-1, 3.21 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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