It's a small slate on the MLB schedule today, but we've got three plus-money plays highlighting our favorite MLB picks for Thursday.
See why our baseball experts are backing the Twins and Astros to win... as well as an Under in Detroit — despite an apparently ugly pitching matchup.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: LAA/DET u8.5 |
+108 |
 Jon Metler: MIN ML |
+138 |
 Joe Osborne: HOU ML |
+127 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Angels/Tigers Under 8.5
Price: 48¢ (+108) at Polymarket
Let’s stay on the getaway angle today, with the Los Angeles Angels going down to Tampa after today’s game, while the Detroit Tigers are also hitting the road for the weekend.
This total feels inflated at first glance, because of the pitching matchup, but Jack Flaherty has at least started to rein in his wild walk rate, and both his BABIP and LOB% help explain why the expected metrics are pointing toward better results ahead.
Grayson Rodriguez is still working his way back after missing all of last season and now draws a Tigers offense that ranks dead last in the American League in OPS over the last 30 days. These are also the No. 28 and No. 29 offenses in wOBA over that same stretch.
- Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: DSN/ABTV
Jon Metler's expert pick: Twins moneyline
Price: 42¢ (+138) at Polymarket
If you’re going to beat the Chicago White Sox, you need a pitcher capable of neutralizing the power of Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery — and I think Taj Bradley is well-equipped to do exactly that.
On paper, the matchup appears favorable for Chicago’s left-handed bats, but Bradley’s arsenal tells a different story. His high-velocity riding four-seam fastball paired with a well-tunneled splitter consistently forces left-handed hitters out in front, especially when they’re trying to lift the ball for power.
The results back it up: Bradley has held left-handed hitters to a .187 batting average and a .599 OPS this season. Because of that pitching advantage, I think the Minnesota Twins should be priced closer to 49-cent (+104) underdogs in this spot.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: CHSN, MNNT
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Astros moneyline
Price: 44¢ (+127) at Polymarket
These teams are trending in opposite directions, so I’m backing the underdog with the hotter lineup and starting pitcher. Spencer Arrighetti is having a breakout season, allowing two earned runs or fewer in all seven starts (in which Houston has won six).
That includes a dominant outing against Texas two weeks ago, when he gave up just one hit over 7 1/3 scoreless innings. Nathan Eovaldi has been steady, but he’s now facing a red-hot Houston Astros lineup that ranks third in OPS, with an MLB-best 14 home runs over the past week.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- How to watch: RSN/SCHN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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