Let's dive into the new week with a four-set of MLB expert picks on Monday, Aug. 10.
We're eyeing a trio of moneyline picks, with the Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, and St. Louis Cardinals all drawing our attention for various reasons.
See what our experts have cooked up ahead of finalizing your MLB picks for the abbreviated slate.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Dustin Saracini: TOR +1.5 |
-122 |
 Jon Metler: BAL ML |
-113 |
 Neil Parker: HOU ML |
-144 |
 Joe Osborne: STL ML |
-104 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Blue Jays +1.5
Price: 55¢ (-122) at Polymarket
While the Toronto Blue Jays offense has come to life lately, scoring 25 runs across their last five games, it’s what they’ve done against Boston Red Sox right-hander Sonny Gray that has me confident we’ll start the week off with some cash in our pockets.
Across 138 plate appearances with Gray on the bump (a sample size we can get behind), the Blue Jays own a .306 xBA and a .472 xSLG. And in two starts against Toronto this season, the right-hander has allowed 16 hits and eight earned runs over 12 innings.
Expect the Jays to keep this one close at 55 cents.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NESN, Sportsnet
Jon Metler's expert pick: Orioles moneyline
Price: 53¢ (-113) at Polymarket
The Baltimore Orioles face Dean Kremer in a revenge spot after trading him to the Minnesota Twins on July 31, but I'm not worried about the narrative.
If anything, Baltimore's hitters should have an advantage with a deep scouting report on Kremer and familiarity with his arsenal.
Heavily reliant on his four-seam fastball, Kremer is leaning on a pitch that carries a -2 run value this season.
That's a problem against an Orioles lineup featuring Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso, two of the team's biggest bats and best fastball hitters.
Polymarket has Baltimore priced as a 53-cent favorite, but I make them closer to 55 cents. It's a small edge, but that's all we're looking for.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: MASN, Twins.TV
Neil Parker's expert pick: Astros moneyline
Price: 59¢ (-144) at Polymarket
The Houston Astros are rolling along with an active 13-5 run, ranking second in wOBA and averaging 5.3 runs per game, and recently bolstered the roster at the trade deadline.
In the opposite dugout, the San Francisco Giants have gone 7-12 with a 23rd-ranked wOBA and 4.1 runs per game during the same stretch, so it's no surprise that they went in the opposite direction and dealt away established veterans last week.
As a result, I'm confident Houston righty Hayden Wesneski can hold the inferior San Francisco lineup in check enough for the Astros to pull away offensively tonight.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- How to watch: SCHN, NBC Sports Bay Area
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Cardinals moneyline
Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket
The St. Louis Cardinals are in a strong spot to take care of business at home tonight.
The Philadelphia Phillies have gone a brutal 1-13 across Andrew Painter’s last 14 appearances, and his 6.48 ERA is a major reason why. He’s also backed by a Phillies bullpen that ranks 23rd in ERA over the past two weeks.
Meanwhile, St. Louis enters hot at the plate, ranking fourth in OPS over the last week. Hunter Dobbins has been respectable, with a 3.60 ERA, and should get enough support in a pivotal week for the team that's still alive in the wild-card race.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- How to watch: FS1
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| NYM ML | +129 |
| Read analysis in our Mets vs. Braves predictions | |
| ATH +1.5 | -120 |
| Read analysis in our Rays vs. A's predictions | |
| PHI/STL o8.5 | -126 |
| Read analysis in our Phillies vs. Cardinals predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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