The Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals are battling in the National League Wild Card race ahead of their three-game series at Busch Stadium beginning Monday, Aug. 10.
While Philadelphia is a short road favorite (-113), my top Phillies vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks are calling for the Cards to pull off the victory in a high-scoring game tonight.
Who will win Phillies vs Cardinals today: Cardinals (+105)
Favorable hitting conditions and a soft pitching matchup are the perfect recipe for statistical correction at the dish for the St. Louis Cardinals.
Despite ranking seventh in hard-hit percentage and third in both squared-up contact and blast-contact rates across the past 30 days, the Cards sit 23rd in BABIP.
So, with Philadelphia Phillies righty Andrew Painter bringing a 5.13 xERA and allowing the ninth-highest wOBA to opposing hitters among pitchers with at least 50 innings this season, I’m backing St. Louis at home.
Of course, Philadelphia also ranks 29th in wOBA on the highway this season.
COVERS INTEL: The Phillies and Cardinals rank sixth and seventh in xwOBA, respectively, over the past 30 days, paving the way to a high-scoring game at Busch Stadium tonight.
Phillies vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: 8.5 (-126)
This Over is my favorite bet for this game because Cardinals righty Hunter Dobbins has only made five starts this season, and the Phillies are third in xwOBA with an average of 4.72 runs per game since the All-Star Break.
Simply put, Dobbins sporting a career 4.07 xFIP with a minuscule 19.1 strikeout percentage while allowing a healthy 37.4% squared-up contact rate across 101 1/3 innings shouldn’t instill a lot of confidence.
Phillies vs Cardinals home run prediction: Alec Burleson (+521)
Cardinals first baseman Alec Burleson has hit 16 of his 19 homers against right-handed pitchers while sporting a monster .240 ISO and .414 wOBA. Returning to the favorable pitching matchup, in addition to the highlighted Painter shortcomings, 1.8 HR/9 is the 13th-highest mark among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched.
- ML/RL bets: 43-18, +27.58 units
- Over/Under bets: 17-16, -0.15 units
Phillies vs Cardinals weather
Stifling mid-90s temperatures will thin the air density and significantly boost ball carry for hitters at Busch Stadium tonight. Additionally, seven to eight mph winds blowing out to left field further favor the hitting conditions Monday evening.
Phillies vs Cardinals odds
- Moneyline: Phillies -115 | Cardinals +105
- Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Cardinals +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-130) | Under 8.5 (+110)
Phillies vs Cardinals trend
The St. Louis Cardinals have won five of their last seven games (+3.90 Units / 44% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Phillies vs Cardinals and game info
| Location | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Monday, August 10, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Andrew Painter (1-8, 6.48 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Hunter Dobbins (2-2, 3.60 ERA) |
Phillies vs Cardinals latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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