The first-place Atlanta Braves head into tonight's series opener against the New York Mets as a -138 moneyline favorite, with first pitch scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET.
However, my Mets vs. Braves predictions are backing the visitors to ride Christian Scott's recent dominance to victory.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Monday, August 10.
Who will win Mets vs Braves today: Mets moneyline (+129)
The New York Mets send Christian Scott to the hill, and he is their best starter right now. The righty owns a 1.63 FIP over his last two outings and has not allowed a homer in four consecutive starts.
The Atlanta Braves offense is merely average at the moment, posting a 96 wRC+ over its last six games. Bryce Elder has been less steady, compiling a 4.32 FIP across his last two starts while allowing a 41% hard-hit rate.
That is dangerous against a Mets lineup carrying a 142 wRC+ and .235 ISO over the last week. Scott gives New York the cleaner starting profile, and the Mets’ current offensive form creates underdog value.
I’ll play this pick down to +110.
COVERS INTEL: Scott has traveled well this season, posting a 3.02 road FIP compared to a 3.86 mark at Citi Field. That gives New York a stronger run-prevention base as a plus-money option in Atlanta.
Mets vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 runs (-112)
The Under 8.5 is the better angle, even with Elder’s recent hard-contact issues. He has not completely unraveled, and Scott gives New York a strong run-prevention base against an Atlanta lineup that has been only average lately.
The bullpen setup also supports a controlled finish. New York’s relief corps owns a 3.90 xERA over the last week while allowing just 0.39 HR/9, and while Atlanta’s pen has been shakier with a 4.59 FIP, it is not in total collapse mode.
The Mets are hot, but this number still gives enough room for a lower-scoring script.
I’ll play this pick up to -130.
Mets vs Braves home run prediction: Carson Benge (+584)
Carson Benge is batting .409 over his last five games with two home runs and a .364 ISO. He also owns an 11.1% barrel rate during that span, and Elder has been vulnerable to the long ball lately, allowing 1.50 HR/9 over his previous four appearances.
Atlanta’s bullpen is also giving up 1.41 HR/9 over the last two weeks. The Braves relief corps owns a 47.1% fly-ball rate during that span, while Benge has a 33.3% HR/FB rate over the last week.
I’ll play this pick down to +500.
- ML/RL bets: 46-56, -16.38 units
- Over/Under bets: 56-43, +6.55 units
Mets vs Braves weather
Weather in Atlanta looks warm and humid tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from 87 degrees at first pitch to around 79 by 10 p.m. ET. Rain chances are highest early at 31%, then drop quickly, while winds stay light around 2–5 mph. Conditions slightly favor carry, but weather should not dominate the handicap.
Mets vs Braves odds
- Moneyline: Mets +133 | Braves -138
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (-150) | Braves -1.5 (+144)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+104) | Under 8.5 (-108)
Mets vs Braves trend
The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.95 Units / 48% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.
How to watch Mets vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Monday, August 10, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, BravesVsn |
| Mets starting pitcher | Christian Scott (3-3, 3.15 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Bryce Elder (8-6, 3.70 ERA) |
Mets vs Braves latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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