The majority of the sports world has its eyes on Game 3 of the NBA Finals, but we're still hunting for value on the diamond today.
Our expert MLB picks have a pair of side bets to tail tonight, with the Rays underpriced and the Phillies lining up for a multi-run win.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jon Metler: TB ML |
+100 |
 Neil Parker: PHI -1.5 |
+104 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Jon Metler's expert pick: Rays ML
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
The Tampa Bay Rays may start Ian Seymour as an opener against the Red Sox tonight, but I believe the key to this matchup lies in the middle innings, when Mason Englert takes over. Englert’s sweeping curveball and slider have both been highly effective this season, and they match up well against a Boston lineup that likes to be aggressive and pull the baseball. The east-west movement on those pitches can make it difficult for hitters to get the barrel out front consistently. On the other side, Tampa Bay’s offensive identity is built around patience: The Rays excel at extending at-bats, spoiling quality pitches, and forcing starters to work deep counts. If they can drive up Connelly Early’s pitch count and get into Boston’s middle relief early, I think they gain a meaningful advantage. I make the Rays closer to 56-cent favorites in this spot, which is why I’m willing to back them at this price.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: RAYS, NESN
Neil Parker's expert pick: Phillies -1.5
Price: 49¢ (+104) at Polymarket
Toronto lefty Patrick Corbin sports a 7.46 ERA with 5.4 BB/9, while allowing a monster .442 wOBA and 1.035 OPS across 35 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies since the beginning of the 2022 season. With NL Cy Young favorite Cristopher Sanchez toeing the rubber tonight for the Phils, they have a huge advantage on the mound. Additionally, the Philly bullpen also has the lowest xFIP, and the bats rank sixth in xwOBA over the past two weeks — while Toronto checks in 22nd and 12th.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBCSP, Rogers Sportsnet
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brewers -1.5 | -105 |
| Read analysis in our Brewers vs. A's predictions | |
| Yankees/Guardians u8 | -115 |
| Read analysis in our Yankees vs. Guardians predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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