The Braves and Phillies are tough to split with their aces taking the bump tonight... or are they?
See why our MLB expert picks like Atlanta to come out on top on Friday, Sept. 4, and much more.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Jon Metler: ATL ML |
50% |
 Neil Parker: CHC -1.5 |
44% |
 Joe Osborne: MIL -1.5 |
49% |
 Dustin Saracini: KC/TOR o9.5 |
54% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Jon Metler's expert pick: Braves moneyline
Price: 50¢ at Polymarket
This is about as good as it gets: two NL East rivals battling for the division, with Chris Sale and Cristopher Ssnchez taking the mound.
I'm not going to overthink this one. I'm backing Sale and the Braves, especially after Sale's dominant complete-game shutout against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He's in elite form right now, and this matchup sets up well for him.
The Phillies' offense relies heavily on production from three left-handed bats: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Luis Arraez. That makes it difficult for me to back Philadelphia at this price against a left-hander like Sale. Schwarber and Harper both look to drop the barrel and elevate pitches in the lower half of the strike zone, but Sale can counter that swing path with his sweeping slider.
The Braves are trading at 50% on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 53% favorite in this spot.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: BravesVision, NBCSP
Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs -1.5
Price: 44¢ at Polymarket
The Cubs rank second in xwOBA and first is ISO across the past 30 days, so with Marlins starter Janson Junk sporting a ho-hum 4.28 xERA and 4.72 xFIP over his past seven starts, I’m anticipating the Chicago lineup pulling away on the scoreboard tonight.
Miami respectively checks in with a 27th-ranked xwOBA and 25th-ranked ISO during the same stretch, and the Marlins are 20th in wOBA against lefties for the season, after all.
Finally, while there have been a lot of peaks and valleys for Chicago southpaw Shota Imanaga, his 3.89 xERA and 3.82 xFIP across his past 11 starts also reinforce the edge on the mound for the Cubbies.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: MARQ, Marlins.TV
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Brewers -1.5
Price: 49¢ at Polymarket
When the Brewers win, they tend to win big, with 11 of their last 12 victories coming by at least two runs.
Milwaukee is well positioned to tee off against Rhett Lowder, as its hitters own a combined .946 OPS against him. In two meetings this season, they smacked him around for nine total runs off 19 hits, and they rank fourth in OPS against righties over the past two weeks.
On the other side, Shane Drohan has had opposite results this season vs. Reds hitters, limiting them to two total runs across two starts.
With the Reds struggling against lefties and Milwaukee holding a sizeable bullpen advantage, the Brewers should be able to pull away
- Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Brewers.TV, Reds.TV
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Royals/Blue Jays Over 9.5
Price: 54¢ at Polymarket
Where has this Toronto Blue Jays offense been all year? They exploded for 17 runs across their last two games against the Cleveland Guardians and have a plus matchup against Daniel Lynch, who will be on another short leash tonight.
If the Jays can get to Lynch early, they should be able to eat the second-worst bullpen in the bigs alive (5.09 ERA).
On the other side, Jameson Taillon is making his first start back from injury after rocking a 11.88 ERA in July and 3.38 ERA in August. With a Jays bullpen that used four of its high-leverage arms yesterday afternoon, the Royals will do their part to get us across the line.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Royals.TV, SN
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| DET ML | 46% |
| Read analysis in our Tigers vs. Guardians predictions | |
| ATL/PHI u6.5 | 48% |
| Read analysis in our Braves vs. Phillies predictions | |
| MIL/CIN o9.5 | 51% |
| Read analysis in our Brewers vs. Reds predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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