The star-studded Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies will hit Citizens Bank Park for Game 1 of the much-anticipated National League Division Series on Saturday, October 4.
A fall classic is in store with the pair of powerhouses going head-to-head, and my Dodgers vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for the series opener are calling for Philly to edge out the win with the total going Over the number Saturday night.
Dodgers vs Phillies Game 1 predictions
Who will win Dodgers vs Phillies Game 1
Both teams have elite starters going up against elite lineups, so with the Phillies winning 55 of their past 81 home games, I’m siding with Philadelphia in Game 1 at a raucous Citizens Bank Park.
Dodgers vs Phillies best bet
Cristopher Sanchez Under 6.5 strikeouts (-132)
This is a high total considering Philadelphia Phillies lefty Cristopher Sanchez has fanned six or fewer batters in nine of his past 12 starts.
His 25.5 strikeout percentage during the stretch is solid, but it’s also inflated by a 12-strikeout game against the Seattle Mariners. Seattle finished the regular season with the fifth-highest K% against lefties, and the Los Angeles Dodgers send a more disciplined lineup to the dish.
The Dodgers finished the regular season with the 10th-lowest K% while ranking third in wOBA and second in ISO against lefties, after all. I also value Los Angeles having the fifth-lowest K% in the final month of the regular season.
Additionally, the Boys in Blue just got a long look at Sanchez on September 28, and the Dodgers put four runs on the board across seven frames while striking out six times.
I’m expecting more of the same in Game 1, and it’s going to take a nearly flawless showing for Sanchez to fan seven Dodgers.
Dodgers vs Phillies Game 1 same-game parlay (SGP)
Just because I consider it a tall task for Sanchez to pile up punch outs doesn’t mean I’m anticipating him having an ineffective start. The lefty finished the regular season with an elite 2.50 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 2.77 xFIP, and I’m expecting him to hold the Dodgers largely in check long enough for the Phillies to pull ahead for good Saturday.
Similarly, the Phillies will be in tough against Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani. While he topped out at 91 pitches across six frames in his final regular-season tuneup, his 2.87 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 2.45 xFIP are right in line with Sanchez’s numbers.
I’m anticipating runs late in the ball game to send this total Over the number because both teams have a suspect cast of characters in the bullpen. Los Angeles finished with the regular season with a 25th-ranked 4.90 ERA in September before allowing five runs across just 4 1/3 innings in the Wild Card series against the Cincinnati Reds.
The Phillies posted a 12th-ranked 3.59 bullpen ERA in September, but also ranked 29th with a 4.58 xFIP.
Of course, in addition to the highlight success of the Los Angeles lineup, Philly ranked fifth in wOBA and eighth in ISO against right-handed pitchers during the regular season.
Dodgers vs Phillies SGP
- Phillies moneyline
- Over 7.5
- Cristopher Sanchez Under 6.5 strikeouts
Dodgers vs Phillies home run pick for Game 1
Teoscar Hernandez anytime home run (+500)
Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez is 5-for-12 against Christopher Sanchez with a pair of doubles and home runs, so it’s a little surprising to see his odds this long for a long fly Saturday. Of course, Hernandez also sports an elite .244 ISO against lefties over the past three years.
Dodgers vs Phillies Game 1 odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +112 | Philadelphia -124
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-213) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Dodgers vs Phillies trend
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the moneyline in 55 of their last 81 games at home (+14.60 Units / 11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Phillies.
How to watch Dodgers vs Phillies and Game 1 info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| First pitch | 6:38 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Shohei Ohtani (1-1, 2.87 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Cristopher Sanchez (13-5, 2.50 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Phillies latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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