Dodgers vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds: Suarez Get His Phil

Ranger Suarez is perhaps underrated by his stats, and facing a hasty call-up who's looked shaky in the pros, our MLB picks like his matchup with the Dodgers tonight.

Last Updated: Jun 9, 2023 3:38 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Ranger Suarez MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Dodgers (36-27) have finally snapped their losing streak and will start fresh with a three-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies (30-32) starting tonight. The Phillies are inching closer and closer to .500, having won five straight now, and will look to carry that momentum into Friday night's series opener.

Have the Dodgers curbed their losing ways or will the Phillies continue their summertime streak?

Continue reading for free MLB betting picks and analysis for the Dodgers vs. Phillies matchup on Friday, June 9th.

Dodgers vs Phillies odds

Dodgers vs Phillies predictions

The MLB season is a long one and is full of its fair share of ups and downs. The Dodgers experienced that in the last week with a four-game losing streak spanning across series with the Yankees and most recently the Reds.

But the Dodgers avoided a sweep yesterday with a 6-0 win over the Reds behind solid performances at the plate and on the mound. Clayton Kershaw turned in a classic performance, allowing just five hits and two walks across seven innings of work en route to a shutout. Freddie Freeman drove in two runs while going 2-2 at the plate and David Peralta drove in another pair as part of his 4-for-5 day at the plate.

Los Angeles will need a similar effort to keep pace with their opponent tonight, the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are winners of five straight after sustaining an equally long losing streak and a 5-13 record in the 18 games prior.

The Phillies will send Ranger Suarez to the mound to keep the streak alive, who just began his 2023 campaign less than a month ago after dealing with back spasms. His early starts were rough (9.82 ERA through his first three) but he has since turned things around.

On May 30th, he put together a 6.2-inning performance only allowing just five hits, two walks, and two earned runs. In his last start (June 4th), he pitched seven innings and allowed just one earned. To say the least, Suarez has turned things around quickly.

Suarez is a quietly fantastic contact pitcher who ranked in the 73rd percentile in hard hit percentage last season and in the 93rd percentile the year prior. He also seems to have implemented a much more varied pitch mix, featuring five pitches this season that have 10%+ usage each compared to the 2021 and 2022 seasons, during which he only had three pitches with such usage.

Making his job easier tonight is the fact that rookie Michael Grove will take the mound opposite of him. Grove was thrust into the rotation to start the season due to injuries and he pitched to a 8.44 ERA in his four appearances before being sent back to the minors. He made his way back to the majors last Saturday, allowing four earned runs (and two home runs) across five innings of work against the Yankees.

My best bet: Phillies moneyline (-105 at DraftKings)

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Dodgers vs Phillies moneyline analysis

Making things more difficult for Grove and the Dodgers is that Los Angeles carries the fourth-worst relief ERA in the league this year at 4.71, while Ranger Suarez is backed by at least a league-average one (3.90 ERA, 13th).

It's that exact bullpen that has failed the Dodgers as of late, with Los Angeles' opponents having scored four or more runs in six of the last seven games. And that’s while the Dodgers' bats have produced 5.4 runs on average during that span, which is why they have lost six of those last seven.

Meanwhile, the Phillies haven't allowed more than three runs since last Friday, and have put up an average of 5.4 runs during that time.

Directionally, this game favors the Phillies in more ways than not, and for the odds to suggest otherwise provides a value proposition.

Dodgers vs Phillies Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 9.5 and some markets have moved to a 9 with a juiced Over since.

Los Angeles is MLB's most Over-friendly team this season, having gone 36-25-2 that way (59.0%). On the road, that clip has been even better at 68.8% (22-10-1).

They have split their last four totals but have gone 14-5-1 to the Over in their last 20. However, in games with higher totals like tonight's (9.0 or more), they have gone just 13-12-2 to the Over.

The Phillies are 32-26-4 to the Under this year, good for the seventh-highest rate of Unders on the year at 55.2%. At home, they’ve gone 14-11-2 (56.0%) to the Under.

They’ve also gone 6-3 to the Under in their last nine and in games with totals of nine or more, they have gone an even 13-13-4 on totals.

Dodgers vs Phillies game info

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Date: Friday, June 9, 2023
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: NBC 10

Starting pitchers

Michael Grove (0-2, 8.14 ERA): Grove has unexpectedly been thrust into the major leagues this year, starting the year in the starting rotation after a handful of untimely injuries. He expectedly had a hard time with the sudden adjustment, pitching to an 8.44 ERA before being sent back down. Grove recently rejoined the club, allowing four earned to the Yankees in five innings of work.

Ranger Suarez (1-2, 5.47 ERA): Suarez made his season debut in mid-May after being sidelined with back spasms. The 27-year-old is a much better pitcher than his 5.47 ERA would suggest, and his recent performances are indicative of that. Suarez has allowed just three earned runs in his last 13.2 innings of work and will look to build on that tonight.

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Phillies are 5-0 in their last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Phillies


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