The third and final installment of this cross-country series gets underway on Sunday with the NL East’s Philadelphia Phillies hosting the NL West’s Los Angeles Dodgers.
These two clubs split the first two games, with Philadelphia winning the first matchup, 5-4, while Los Angeles answered back with a convincing 9-0 victory on Saturday.
Will the Phillies defend their home diamond, or can the Dodgers take care of business as road favorites? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs Phillies on Sunday, June 11.
Dodgers vs Phillies odds
Dodgers vs Phillies predictions
Slated to take the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies is right-hander Taijuan Walker, who should be a great candidate to fade in this contest. Through 13 starts this season, Walker is 5-3 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, ranking in the 40th percentile or lower in Hard Hit%, xERA, xwOBA, and xSLG. However, perhaps his greatest weakness this season is the inability to strikeout opposing hitters. Currently, Walker ranks in the 27th percentile or lower in both K% and Whiff%.
Possessing a six-pitch arsenal, Walker does an excellent job mixing his pitches and keeping hitters on their toes. However, he has recorded fewer than four strikeouts in five of his past six starts, a trend likely continue against the stacked Los Angeles Dodgers. Through 12 career starts against the Dodgers, Walker is 3-4 with a 5.25 ERA.
Once again boasting one of the best lineups in baseball, Los Angeles ranks in the Top 5 in the league in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS, and home runs. The Dodgers are also very good at avoiding strikeouts, evidenced by the fact that they rank 11th in the league this season in K% when facing right-handed pitching.
Looking at Sunday’s projected starting lineup, seven of the nine Los Angeles hitters possess a K% south of 20% this year.
My best bet: Walker Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
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Dodgers vs Phillies moneyline analysis
I would lean towards the Dodgers’ moneyline in this contest, but do not feel confident one way or the other. While Los Angeles clearly possesses the stronger lineup and Walker is not to be trusted on the mound, there is too much uncertainty regarding Los Angeles’ pitching situation.
While nothing is confirmed as of early Sunday morning, the reports indicate that the Dodgers are likely to go with a bullpen game. If those reports are true, then we should expect to see Victor Gonzalez open for Nick Robertson.
That means Gonzalez will not go any further than one inning, something he has not done since the middle of May. Following him is Robertson, someone who made his MLB debut in relief last week against the Cincinnati Reds and only threw two innings.
Dodgers vs Phillies Over/Under analysis
I would lean towards the Over in this game, but once again, do not feel confident one way or the other. Both of these lineups are very strong, ranking in the top half of the league in SLG and OPS.
And, as mentioned above, we should have little reason to be optimistic about Walker’s performance. With that said, there is still too much uncertainty regarding Los Angeles’ pitching situation.
Assuming those aforementioned reports are true, I have no idea whether Robertson will throw just two innings again, or if the Dodgers will trust him to go deeper into the game in his second career MLB appearance. He looked very sharp in his lone outing against the Reds, throwing two perfect innings, but that is a very small sample size.
Dodgers vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, June 11, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, NBCS-P |
Starting pitchers
Nick Robertson (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Early reports indicate that Robertson will take over the game following Gonzalez’s first inning. A rookie right-hander from James Madison University, Robertson made his MLB debut last week against the Cincinnati Reds in a relief appearance. While it is a small sample size, he looked tremendous over those two innings, not allowing a baserunner while striking out three hitters.
Taijuan Walker (5-3, 1.37 ERA): It has certainly not been smooth sailing for Walker, who will occasionally put together a strong outing, but more often than not struggles on the mound. His underlying metrics suggest further difficulties moving forward, ranking in the 40th percentile or lower in Hard Hit%, xERA, xwOBA and xSLG. Struggling with strikeouts this year, Walker ranks in the 27th percentile or lower in both K% and Whiff%.
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Trend to know
Walker has recorded fewer than four strikeouts in five of his past six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Phillies
