We're going splits-heavy with our MLB player props analysis today, targeting a trio of right-handed hitters in favorable matchups against left-handed pitchers.
I explain further why I'm targeting Masyn Winn, Spencer Torkelson, and Marcus Semien in my home run props for Thursday, May 1, below.
Best MLB home run props today
Winn (+475)
Torkelson (+340)
Semien (+500)
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HR picks for May 1
Masyn Winn (+475 at DraftKings)
Shortstop Masyn Winn has been a bright spot for the St. Louis Cardinals this season, hitting .260 with three homers in 21 games. He just had a wild doubleheader on Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds, going 4-for-8 with a pair of home runs.
While Winn isn’t a huge HR hitter — he smacked just 15 last season — we have to ride his hot bat. He’ll face lefty Andrew Abbott today, who has allowed three bombs in as many starts already. Nine of Winn's 20 career home runs have come off lefties in 350 fewer plate appearances.
Spencer Torkelson (+340 at DraftKings)
Spencer Torkelson is off to a nice start this season from a power standpoint. He’s already gone deep eight times, just two homers shy of last year’s total. In 2023, Torkelson also had 31 home runs for the Detroit Tigers.
The slugger hasn’t smacked a homer in five games, and tonight is the perfect opportunity. The Los Angeles Angels send Yusei Kikuchi to the hill, and he's always had issues with the long ball. He’s already given up four of them in six outings this season.
And like Winn, Torkelson has shown prodigious power opposite southpaws, drilling 21 home runs in 401 career plate appearances vs. LHP compared to 36 in 1,199 PAs vs. righties. He's also 2-for-2 lifetime against Kikuchi with one of those hits being a home run.
Marcus Semien (+500 at DraftKings)
We’re looking at Texas Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien today because of his track record against A's starter Jeffrey Springs. Semien is 6-for-13 with three home runs against the struggling southpaw.
For the season, the veteran has just two homers and is hitting a paltry .182. But Semien is heating up, smacking four hits across his last two games, both against the A's. It’s only a matter of time until he gets under one enough to find the bleachers.
That could very well happen this afternoon because his confidence is going to be sky-high against Springs, who has surrendered five HRs already. Let's get him in our MLB picks before he gets really hot.
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Juan Soto
(+400) - Triston Casas
(+650) - Rafael Devers (+310)
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
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