What a massive win for the Toronto Blue Jays.
The bats of someone other than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette came alive to fuel an awesome comeback against the Boston Red Sox.
My Blue Jays predictions break down if those bats keep rolling against Tanner Houck and the BoSox as Toronto goes for the series win on Thursday, May 1.
Blue Jays predictions for May 1
- Best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 home runs
(+440 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 hits
Anthony Santander Over 0.5 RBI
(+500 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Vladdy To Keep Jays Going
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 home runs (+440 at BetVictor)
Boy, did the Toronto Blue Jays need that one.
Things were looking pretty dark for the Jays. They had lost eight of their last nine games and trailed the Boston Red Sox 6-0 heading into the bottom of the sixth inning last night.
But then something crazy happened. Guys not named Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette started hitting.
The recently returned Daulton Varsho started things off with a two-run home run which was followed by a solo shot from Alejandro Kirk.
Then the big bomb came in the bottom of the seventh when Anthony Santander tied the game up with a three-run shot before Kirk walked it off with a hit in the bottom of the 10th.
It could mean nothing, but it’s the type of win that can turn things around for a team. The cherry on top would be winning this series against the division rival Red Sox. And I like their chances.
That’s in part because Boston hands the ball to Tanner Houck. While Houck put on a solid performance when he last faced the Jays at Fenway Park back on April 9, this season has generally been a struggle for the right-hander.
Houck enters this matchup pitching to a 5.06 expected ERA while surrendering a .286 expected batting average to opponents. Those rank in the 24th and 16th percentiles, respectively.
He’s just finding too much of the zone these days and as a result, strikeouts are down, and he’s getting hit hard and often. Houck ranks in the 16th percentile in average exit velocity, and the 11th percentile in hard-hit percentage. And there are a few guys on the Blue Jays that won’t play well against, namely, Vladdy.
While it wasn’t on display last night, the power is starting to come back to Guerrero’s bat, who has hit two home runs in his last five games. And it was only a matter of time. Guerrero enters this game ranked in the 95th percentile in expected batting average, the 89th percentile in average exit velocity, the 92nd percentile in hard-hit percentage and the 95th percentile in bat speed.
Guerrero also has solid career numbers against Houck, going 7-for-20 with two doubles and striking out just three times. That’s good for a .336 xBA and a .588 xSLG.
Over 1.5 total bases for Vladdy looks solid tonight. But let’s make things spicy and back him to hit a home run at a decent price.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 hits
Anthony Santander Over 0.5 RBIs
Home runs are obviously a little volatile, so let’s adjust today’s same-game parlay to include Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to go Over 1.5 total bases instead.
Meanwhile, Daulton Varsho also has solid numbers against Houck, going 2-for-6 with a double and a dinger. That works out to a .399 xBA and a massive .934 xSLG. Take Varsho to get another hit tonight.
And now that April is Over, Anthony Santander can officially get hot. Santander has been a notorious slow starter, so it was nice to see him come up big in a clutch spot last night and he now has two home runs in his last three games.
With us betting Vladdy gets on base, it’s good thinking that Santander will have the opportunity to drive him in. The Jays' No. 3 hitter also has five hits in 15 career ABs vs. Houck.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Thursday, May 1, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet 1 |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Jose Berrios (1-1, 4.24 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Tanner Houck (0-2, 7.58 ERA) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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