The Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies wrap up a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday evening.
Philadelphia took the first two games in this series, and my Nationals vs. Phillies predictions expect them to get the sweep.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this NL East clash on May 1.
Nationals vs Phillies prediction
My Nationals vs Phillies best bet: Phillies -1.5 (+110 at bet365)
The Philadelphia Phillies won 7-2 last night and are now on a four-game win streak. They are second in the NL East with a 17-13 record, while the Washington Nationals are 13-18 and have dropped four of their last five.
The Nats are starting Brad Lord, who has a 4.67 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP in 17 1/3 innings. The prospect came into his rookie season expecting to work out of the bullpen. However, with Josiah Gray recovering from Tommy John surgery and D.J. Herz recently undergoing the same procedure, Lord has filled in at the bottom of the rotation.
He has been shaky in his last three starts and seldom goes deeper than four innings. That will put a lot of pressure on a terrible Washington bullpen has easily the worst ERA (7.41) and WHIP (1.77) in the majors.
The Phillies are responding with right-hander Taijuan Walker. The veteran is coming off the worst season of his career but is on pace for a career-best campaign. He has a 2.78 ERA with a .239 OBA through five starts.
Walker's expected ERA (3.94) and expected batting average (.246) indicate that he'll see regression. However, he's still more reliable than Lord and has a weak-hitting Washington lineup to deal with.
The Nationals are 18th in the majors in OPS (.694), and that number plummets to .613 on the road. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 11th in OPS (.721), with that figure surging to .797 at home. Back the Phillies to win by multiple runs today.
Nationals vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies -1.5
Brad Lord Over 1.5 walks allowed
Bryson Stott 1+ hits
Lord is in the bottom 25th percentile of pitchers in walk rate (11.5%) while the Phillies are second in the majors in walk rate (10.7%). Lord has walked nine batters through 17 1/3 innings and unless he gets chased in the first few innings, he should eclipse this number.
Phillies infielder Bryson Stott is batting .297 and has picked up a hit in 19 of his last 24 games. He bats .320 with the platoon advantage and his BA sits at a whopping .357 at Citizens Bank Park. He'll thrive at home against the right-handed Lord.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Nationals vs Phillies odds
Nationals vs Phillies live odds
Nationals vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: Washington +150 | Philadelphia -180
- Run line: Washington +1.5 (-130) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-115) | Under 9.5 (-105)
Nationals vs Phillies trend
The Phillies are 5-1 in the last six meetings between these division foes and covered the run line in four of those contests. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Phillies.
How to watch Nationals vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Thursday, 5-1-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | MASN, NBC Sports Philadelphia |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Brad Lord (0-3, 4.67 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Taijuan Walker (1-2, 2.78 ERA) |
Nationals vs Phillies latest injuries
Nationals vs Phillies weather
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