Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran has been on fire and I'm betting on him to have a big game in Toronto today.
My MLB picks for Thursday are also backing Rangers sophomore Wyatt Langford and Tigers righty Casey Mize. Here are my best free MLB player props for May 1.
Best MLB player props today
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Langford o1.5 total bases (+125) -
Duran o1.5 total bases (-115) -
Mize u2.5 earned runs (-150)
MLB props for May 1
Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at bet365)
Wyatt Langford was the No. 4 pick in the 2023 MLB Draft and is quickly playing up to his vast potential. The 23-year-old is slugging .597 and has jacked six homers with five doubles through 21 games. He's in the Top 15th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.540) and will have the platoon advantage against Athletics southpaw Jeffrey Springs today.
Springs is in the midst of an ugly debut season with the A's. He made five starts in April, where he pitched to a 7.66 ERA and allowed opposing batters to slug .533. The A's also have a weak bullpen behind him with their relievers 23rd in the majors in OBA (.254) and 26th in WHIP (1.52).
This is a five-star prop play according to EV Analytics, which is projecting 1.9 total bases for Langford today.
Jarren Duran Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at DraftKings)
Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran was named an All-Star in 2024 and led the AL in doubles (48) and triples (14) while adding 21 home runs.
Duran is again near the top of the league in doubles and triples and has been red-hot lately. The 27-year-old is slashing .390/.432/.659 over the last 10 days with seven extra-base hits.
Today, Duran will have the platoon advantage against Toronto Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios, who has a 4.24 ERA with an expected ERA of 4.52 through five starts. Duran has a history of owning Berrios, going 9-18 at the plate with five doubles and three homers in his career against the veteran.
Casey Mize Under 2.5 earned runs (-150 at bet365)
Detroit Tigers right-hander Casey Mize is having a breakout season, pitching to a 2.12 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP through five starts. His expected ERA of 2.44 and expected batting average of .198 suggest that his early-season production might be sustainable long-term.
The 27-year-old doesn't generate many strikeouts, but he has good control and limits hard contact. He also has an easy matchup tonight against the Los Angeles Angels.
The Halos are 24th in the majors in scoring (3.66 runs per game) and 25th in OPS (.659). They've been even worse lately, plating just 2.38 runs per game with an OPS of .542 over the last 15 days.
Not intended for use in MA.
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