The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies play the middle game of a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia this afternoon, with the Dodgers looking to snap out of a funk that has seen them lose five of their last six games.
That included a loss yesterday to the Phils, where L.A. rallied to tie the game late... only to have the bullpen let the team down (again) in the bottom of the ninth.
Yesterday's game ended in a push, but with the MLB odds showing the same total today, the Under may be the play to make with a much better pitching matchup.
I'll discuss that — and give my best free MLB betting pick — in my Dodgers vs. Phillies breakdown for Saturday, June 10.
Dodgers vs Phillies odds
Dodgers vs Phillies predictions
The Dodgers are tabbing RHP Bobby Miller, who has been a revelation since coming up from the minors on May 23. He's 2-0 with just two earned runs allowed in three outings, yielding a total of just nine hits in 17 innings of work, good for a sparkling 0.76 WHIP.
The Phils are countering with veteran righty Aaron Nola, who has been inconsistent this season and yielded 12 runs (nine earned) in his last three starts, but he has a proven track record as a top-end starter — and his .366 expected ERA suggests he's been unluckier than his 4.30 actual ERA — plus he has a solid 3-1 record, 3.03 ERA and .202 opponent batting average at home, with 37 strikeouts in 32 2/3 home innings.
We had a total of nine runs in a game with Michael Grove against Ranger Suarez... but with a better SP matchup in Miller and Nola — plus both teams' best relievers likely to be deployed today (after not pitching last night) — I'm more confident in this being a lower-scoring contest.
My best bet: Under 9
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Dodgers vs Phillies moneyline analysis
The Dodgers have dropped five of the past six games overall and have not found any success on the road — even against the lowly Cincinnati Reds in the series prior.
Meanwhile, the Phillies are moving up the standings, winning six in a row to repair an ugly early-season record. With another win, the Phillies will be at .500 for the first time since May 14.
Philly has posted 38 wins in the past 55 games at home dating back to last season, good for a .691 winning percentage, and it's also 9-3 in its past 12 at home against a right-handed starter.
I don’t think the Phillies hang Miller with the loss, but I think they could victimize another bullpen pitcher to get another win today.
Dodgers vs Phillies Over/Under analysis
The Over is 15-5-1 in the past 21 games overall for the Dodgers, and most of the trends point to the Over for the visitors — however, the Under has cashed in each of Miller’s past two starts, with just 12 total runs in those games, while the only Over in a Miller start came courtesy of the Dodgers dropping late runs on the dregs of Atlanta's bullpen to barely get over an 8.5 total.
I think that the Miller-Under trend continues, especially since he is being opposed by Nola, who again is rock solid at home.
For the Phillies, the Under is 6-3-1 in their last 10 games after yesterday's contest, while losing juts twice in the last 10 tries against NL West foes.
Dodgers vs Phillies game info
|Location:||Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA|
|Date:||Saturday, June 10, 2023|
|First pitch:||4:05 p.m. ET|
Bobby Miller (2-0, 1.06 ERA): The rookie has hit the ground running after being summoned to replace the injured Dustin May. Miller allowed just one hit over six scoreless frames against the New York Yankees his last time out and just two earned runs in his first three MLB outings, as he has a fastball and a sinker that can hit triple digits, complemented by a high-80s slider and changeup.
Aaron Nola (5-4, 4.30 ERA): The veteran baffled the Detroit Tigers his last time out, but that’s not saying much. Still, Nola has had solid numbers at home, going 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA and a minuscule .202 opponent batting average with just nine walks in 32 2/3 innings in five home outings. Nola has limited the opposition to just 23 hits in his five home starts, too.
Trend to know
The Under is 4-1-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings in Philadelphia. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Phillies