Dodgers vs Brewers Picks and Predictions: Pitcher's Duel Favors the Under

We've got a pitcher's duel with Andrew Heaney and Corbin Burnes toeing the rubber in Thursday afternoon's clash between the Dodgers and Brewers in Milwaukee. While Burnes gives the Brew Crew the edge, we like the Under with the total set at 7.5.

Last Updated: Aug 18, 2022 10:06 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Corbin Burnes Milwaukee Brewers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The curtain comes down on a four-game series at American Family Field on Thursday afternoon as the Los Angeles Dodgers square off with the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Dodgers took two of the first three games and will send a revitalized Andrew Heaney to the hill on getaway day. But 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes stands in their way. 

Can the Brewers ensure a series split? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs Brewers on Thursday, August 18.

Dodgers vs Brewers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Dodgers opened as narrow -108 consensus favorites, and that line has trended upward slightly to -115 at the majority of sportsbooks. The total has stood pat at 7.5 runs.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Dodgers vs Brewers predictions

Picks made on 8/18/2022 at 9:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Dodgers vs Brewers game info

Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Date: Thursday, August 18, 2022
First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
TV: MLB Network

Dodgers vs Brewers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Andrew Heaney (1-0, 1.16 ERA): It’s been a season of stops and starts for Heaney, but the results have been mostly positive. He’s struck out 42 batters while walking only 10 through 31 innings of work. Elevated home run rates have long been an issue for the left-hander (1.6 homers per nine innings over his career), but he’s served up only one round-tripper in Dodger Blue. 

Corbin Burnes (8-5, 2.39 ERA): Burnes has earned a quality start in nine of his last 11 chances, posting a 5-1 record in that stretch. His team is 8-3 behind him in those contests. Burnes’ 181 strikeouts this season rank second in MLB only to Gerrit Cole (184). 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Brewers are 9-4 in their last 13 home games.  Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Brewers

Dodgers vs Brewers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Dodgers’ Andrew Heaney has overachieved in 2022, but he’s likely to blink first in this battle against Corbin Burnes and the Brewers on Thursday afternoon.

Heaney has faced only 12 batters for a third time in a game this season and is averaging a mere 4 1-3 innings per start, operating somewhere between a traditional starter and an opener in terms of workload. He figures to give a Dodgers bullpen that’s already worked plenty hard in this series even more heavy lifting to do. The deeper manager Dave Roberts has to go into the L.A. relief corps, the more it plays into Burnes' hands.

The 2021 NL Cy Young winner is pacing the senior circuit in strikeouts this season (181). He’s been on top of his game in his last two starts despite failing to earn a win, authoring a 1.38 ERA and a 0.62 WHIP with 15 punchouts over 13 innings. 

Burnes has lasted at least seven innings for Milwaukee in 10 of his 23 starts this season, making manager Craig Counsell’s job that much easier in the process. Neither Brad Boxberger nor closer Devin Williams was deployed on Wednesday, but either or both could certainly come in to close the door on the Dodgers in this spot.

It will likely take some well-timed hits for the Brewers to win, and Andrew McCutchen could deliver one. He’s batting .320 with runners in scoring position and two out this year. 

Prediction: Brewers moneyline (-103 at BetRivers)

Over/Under analysis

There should be a whole bunch of zeroes on the scoreboard early on in this one, paving the way to an easy Under.

The Brewers lineup ranks a dismal 29th in the majors in batting average against lefties (.218) this year, so Heaney should enjoy some success from the get-go. He’s baffled the opposition the first time through the order in 2022, authoring a .161 opponent batting average. 

Burnes has been even better than that, as opposing batters are hitting just .159 the first time they see him in a game, and .178 the second time through the order. He’s been extremely stingy with runners in scoring position, as opponents have a meager .125 average against him in that situation this season.

Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are each going through minor slumps for the Dodgers, as they are each batting .217 over the last week. Justin Turner has been even worse, hitting .158 in that span.

Similarly, the Brewers have been mired in a collective funk this month, batting .202 as a team. Christian Yelich hitting .167 in August particularly catches the eye. 

Both bullpens have been on top of their games over the last two weeks, with L.A. ranking second in the majors with a 2.25 ERA, and Milwaukee checking in sixth with a 2.90 ERA. Other than Dodgers closer Craig Kimbrel — who’s worked three of the last four days — there are no crucial candidates for a respite in either unit. 

Prediction: Under 7.5 (-110 at WynnBET)

Best bet

Taking the first five innings Under is tempting, but there’s little leeway at 3.5 runs. It’s not worth the premium when the full-game Under is highly likely to prevail thanks to a generous line of 7.5 runs.

Heaney and Burnes should trade zeroes early on. The former will likely exit early, but the Dodgers have the depth to keep the Brewers’ slumping bats in check.

Burnes has the ability to battle the Dodgers’ high-octane lineup successfully through six or seven frames, which would keep Milwaukee’s suspect middle relievers out of the equation and help bridge the gap to Williams in the ninth inning. 

Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 at WynnBET)

MLB parlays

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