The Los Angeles Dodgers (21-10) take a five-game winning streak into a weekend series with the Atlanta Braves (14-16) beginning Friday night at Truist Park.
Grant Holmes takes the mound for Atlanta after a six-run meltdown in his last start. I’m targeting Shohei Ohtani’s total bases prop with my Dodgers vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 2.
Dodgers vs Braves prediction
My Dodgers vs Braves best bet: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (-110 at DraftKings)
Grant Holmes posted a solid 3.56 ERA, 3.46 xERA, and 3.20 FIP in 68 1/3 innings split between the bullpen and the rotation in his MLB debut a year ago. That provided optimism heading into a full-time gig in the Atlanta Braves starting rotation for 2025, but early results have been less promising (4.50 ERA, 5.12 xERA, 5.45 FIP).
The 29-year-old is issuing too many free passes (14.5% BB rate) while getting hit hard (16th percentile barrel rate) when he does find the zone. His groundball rate has fallen five percentage points from a year ago to 38.4%, correlating with an increase in home runs allowed (1.6 per nine innings).
The swing-and-miss stuff that made him an appealing target in the prop market and in fantasy baseball last year is completely gone. After posting a 16.4% swinging strike rate in 2024, he’s down to 9.5% this year.
Holmes has a 91 Stuff+, ranking him 116th out of 135 starting pitchers who have thrown 20 innings. His overall numbers could look much worse if his deflated .191 BABIP regresses to the mean (.314 last year).
One batter on the Los Angeles Dodgers who should capitalize is Shohei Ohtani.
He’s been his usual otherworldly self, ranking in the 98th percentile or above in xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and bat speed.
The 30-year-old has blasted right-handed pitching in his career (165 wRC+). Although Holmes has reverse splits this year, that wasn’t the case in 2024 when his FIP was nearly double against righties (4.05) than lefties (2.10).
Holmes attacks lefties with four-seamers, curves, and sliders. Ohtani doesn’t have a weakness to any of those pitches (179 wRC+ against four-seamers, 164 wRC+ for curves, and 143 wRC+ for sliders).
Ohtani has recorded 2+ total bases in four of his last five games, so I’ll bet on him doing so again in a favorable pitching matchup.
Dodgers vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases
Dodgers moneyline
Under 9
Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the call for L.A. He’s been superb with an 87th percentile xERA (2.52) and 91st percentile K rate (32.6%).
The Japanese hurler is at the top of his powers, forcing a ton of groundballs (96th percentile GB rate) and strikeouts to keep opposing batters off balance. He’s allowed a single earned run across his last four starts (24 innings), during which the Dodgers are 0-4 O/U.
Both bullpens are well-rested after a day off on Thursday, so there can be a short leash if either starter struggles (Holmes as expected, Yamamoto surprisingly).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Braves odds
Dodgers vs Braves live odds
Dodgers vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -164 | Atlanta +147
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 | Atlanta +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Dodgers vs Braves trend
Shohei Ohtani has recorded 2+ total bases in four of his last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Braves.
How to watch Dodgers vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date | Friday, 5-2-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNLA, FDSN |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3-2, 1.06 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Grant Holmes (2-1, 4.50 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Braves latest injuries
Dodgers vs Braves weather
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