Stop the presses, I hit a home run prop last night! The tide is turning, and now I have a small getaway slate to dig into those MLB player props for another Dinger winner.
The lefties have the hitting edge at Citi Field with winds going to right field and prime hitting conditions, while the bats at Kauffman will get an 18-mph wind boost to center field. I wrap things up with a Dodger bat this evening!
These are my favorite MLB home run props for Thursday, June 11.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Alec Burleson |
+449 |
 Jac Caglianone |
+582 |
 Freddie Freeman |
+441 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +15519 |
Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+449)
Left-handed bats get a boost today with 10-mph winds blowing out to right field at Citi Field, and Alec Burleson is the target. He has already homered in each of the first two games of the series and has gone deep three times over his last five games.
He also owns one of the best flyball rates on the team over the last two weeks, and the lefty has one of the strongest pull rates in the lineup.
The fair price for him to go deep for a third straight game is closer to +370/+380, making him one of the better +EV dingers on the board today.
He'll face Christian Scott, who looks due for some correction in his current HR/FB rate while carrying one of the worst groundball rates in baseball.
- Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, Cardinals.TV
Home run pick: Jac Caglianone (+582)
Kauffman Stadium is hot and humid today with 18-mph winds blowing out to center field. The Royals get Kumar Rocker, who appears to be outperforming his underlying numbers. His HR/FB rate is roughly half of what it was last season, despite carrying a worse groundball rate.
He saw Kansas City two starts ago and pitched well, but the familiarity edge shifts to the Royals hitters in today's rematch.
Jac Caglianone is swinging the fastest bat on the Royals over the last two weeks and at a Top-10 rate in all of baseball. The bat speed is turning into production, as he has three home runs over that stretch while slugging a team-best .737.
Only 15 players in baseball have posted a better slugging percentage than Caglianone over the last 14 days.
His price is still longer than some of the bigger-name Royals bats, but based on recent form and the underlying metrics, Caglianone at +450 or better is the best way to take advantage of the wind, heat, and pitching matchup.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Royals.TV, Rangers Sports Network
Home run pick: Freddie Freeman (+441)
Mitch Keller is one of the better home run targets in the late games tonight. He has been especially vulnerable to left-handed hitters, who account for 68% of his home runs allowed since 2024.
The wind is blowing out to left field at 10 mph, which fits Freddie Freeman's profile, as only 12.2% of his balls in play are pulled.
Freeman is 9-for-18 lifetime vs. Keller, with one dinger, has three four-baggers over the last two weeks, and has the Dodgers' third-best slugging rate over that stretch — behind two guys who are 100 and 200 points shorter to go yard today.
There aren't a ton of good HR looks late today, but the righty vs. lefty of Keller vs. Freeman at +400 or better is making the card.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNP, SNLA
- HR picks: 14-110 SU, -36.92u
Today’s HR parlay
| Alec Burleson |
Bet Now +15519 |
| Jac Caglianone |
|
| Freddie Freeman |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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