The Arizona Diamondbacks struck first in their series against the rival San Diego Padres.
The D-backs' bats came alive, and they got a solid start from Zac Gallen. But things might not be the same when they hand the ball to Merrill Kelly for Game 2.
My Diamondbacks vs. Padres predictions break down why betting on it being a short night for Kelly is the way to go.
Check out that and more MLB picks for this National League West showdown below, with first pitch scheduled for 9:40 pm ET at PETCO Park in San Diego on Tuesday, July 8.
Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction
My Diamondbacks vs Padres best bet: Merrill Kelly Under 17.5 outs (+140 at BetMGM)
Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Josh Naylor provided the power, while Zac Gallen provided the pitching in a 6-3 win for the Arizona Diamondbacks over the San Diego Padres.
Gallen went six strong innings, allowing just one unearned run on five hits and striking out nine. While Gallen looked great, I’m betting things won’t be as easy for tonight’s starter, Merrill Kelly.
The 36-year-old right-hander has battled his consistency this season, looking great at times and poor at others. So, ranking in the 45th percentile in expected ERA and 41st in expected batting average feels about right.
And when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. Kelly ranks in the Bottom 15% of MLB pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage.
Kelly also has an average leash sitting at about 90 pitches per start. He got to that number quickly when he last faced the Padres back on June 15. The righty got tagged for four runs on seven hits in just five innings of work.
And that was at home. This time, they’ll face off at PETCO Park, where the Padres are 27-16 and the offense has been much better.
Kelly has an outs recorded prop sitting at 17.5. A number he’s stayed below twice in his last four starts. The plus money we’re getting in this matchup for him to do it again is too much to pass up.
Diamondbacks vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Merrill Kelly Under 17.5 outs
Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ RBIs
Luis Arraez 2+ hits
Fernando Tatis Jr. has given Kelly the most problems in the past. The Padres’ outfielder is 10-28 with a double and four dingers in his career vs. Kelly. That’s good for a .281 xBA and a .618 xSLG. Add a Tatis RBI to this same-game parlay.
Meanwhile, Luis Arraez is starting to hit like his old self again. The former batting champ is hitting .375 over his last 12 games and has six multi-hit games over that span. He’s also 4-for-11 in his career vs. Kelly. Let’s go with two hits for Arraez tonight.
Diamondbacks vs Padres odds
Diamondbacks vs Padres live odds
Diamondbacks vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona +115 | San Diego -135
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-200) | San Diego -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 | Under 8.0
Diamondbacks vs Padres trend
The Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 37 games for +11.90 Units and a 29% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Padres.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Padres and game info
| Location | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, 7-8-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | ARID, SDPA |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Merrill Kelly (7-4, 3.55 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Nick Pivetta (9-2, 3.25 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Padres latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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