Cubs vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Machado Leads San Diego to Game 2 Win

Chicago has had a rough start to the season, whereas the Padred are looking sharp, sitting at 19-11. Will the Cubs be able to steal another game in the series, or will the Padres tighten up? Read our MLB betting picks and predictions to find out.

Last Updated: May 10, 2022 12:21 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Manny Machado San Diego Padres MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs snapped a five-game losing streak when they took the series opener in this three-game set against the San Diego Padres. Kyle Hendricks pitched an absolute gem in Monday’s victory, and the team will hope that the returning Wade Miley can follow suit. 

Will Chicago find a way to pull out back-to-back wins over a good San Diego team? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Padres on May 10. 

Cubs vs Padres odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Cubs opened as +138 underdogs when Miley was announced as the starter here, and Chicago is now up at +147 on one sportsbook. Only one place left the line untouched at +138. 

The total in this game opened at 7.5 and is down at 7 on two different sportsbooks. You’ll either have to pay serious juice on the Over at 7 or on the Under at 7.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Cubs vs Padres predictions

Picks made on 5/10/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Cubs vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Tuesday, May 10, 2022
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports San Diego, Marquee Sports Network

Cubs vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Wade Miley LHP (2021: 12-7, 3.37 ERA): After a rock-solid season with the Cincinnati Reds last year, Miley appears poised to make his debut for the Cubs. Miley, who had been dealing with elbow inflammation early in the year, looked good in his tune-up appearance with the Iowa Cubs on May 5. He threw four scoreless innings, so he should be good to go here. 

Mike Clevinger RHP (1-1, 1.74 ERA): Clevinger missed all of last season after having undergone Tommy John surgery, but he made his season debut for the Padres last week. The righty gave up three earned runs over 4 2-3 innings, and he struck out four batters in the process. If Clevinger can capture his pre-injury form, that significantly changes the Padres’ long-term outlook. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Cubs: Marcus Stroman P (Out), Justin Steele P (Out), Ethan Roberts P (Out), Clint Frazier OF (Out), Alec Mills P (Out), Andrelton Simmons SS (Out), Adbert Alzolay P (Out).
Padres: Wil Myers OF (Out), Luke Voit 1B (Out), Pierce Johnson P (Out), Blake Snell P (Out), Austin Adams P (Out), Fernando Tatis Jr. OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Padres are 6-1 in their last seven games versus teams with winning percentages below 40%. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Padres

Cubs vs Padres picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Miley is being thrown into the fire, as his first start comes on the road and happens to be against a team that crushes lefties. On the season, the Padres are Top 10 in the league in on-base plus slugging and weighted runs created against southpaws.

On top of that, San Diego is fourth in MLB in isolated power against left-handed pitching. The Padres just have a number of righty bats that see the ball well against lefties, and they’ll be looking forward to seeing Miley here. 

One player to keep an eye on is Manny Machado, who is batting .381 with seven homers, seven doubles, and 21 RBI this year — with a lot of that damage coming against lefties. Machado has also homered twice against Miley in his career, so he’ll definitely be somebody that can help Padres' bettors cash in here.

Overall, Miley relies a lot on smoke and mirrors when he pitches, but he could need some time on the mound to find his groove. Until then, he’s just a veteran with subpar stuff that will be putting pitches over the middle of the plate without much heat or movement. 

Clevinger, on the other hand, has been a really good pitcher in this league for most of his career, and he didn’t look terrible in his first start of the season. The righty needed to knock off some rust in that outing, as it had been over a year since he last pitched in an MLB game, but it shouldn’t take him too long to figure things out. A meeting with a Cubs team that is just 21st in the league in runs scored and 19th in on-base plus slugging could help. 

Prediction: Padres moneyline (-154 at WynnBET)

Over/Under analysis

Clevinger would likely be able to go out and throw a gem against this Cubs lineup on most days, but it’s hard to put that on him when he’s coming off such a serious injury. It wouldn’t be surprising if he continues to have a few shaky innings early in the season, as there’s just no substitute for figuring things out in actual games. He just needs time to really find his stride on the mound. 

As for Miley, that sentiment is almost doubled when you consider he doesn’t have overpowering stuff. If he’s not as sharp as can be with hitting his spots, his high 80’s fastball could end up getting smacked around. His presence as a starter in this game is the sole reason the Over looks like the play. 

Prediction: Over 7 (-125 at DraftKings)

Best bet

As previously mentioned, Machado has been remarkable to start the year. He’s batting .381 with seven homers and 21 RBI this season, and he’s even better against lefties. When facing southpaws, Machado is batting .500 with five home runs and nine RBI. 

Machado is listed at -250 to record a hit in this game, so it’s unlikely you’ll see him go out there and turn in a complete dud. We like him to record a RBI at plus-money. If his teammates can’t get on and make it easy on him, don’t be surprised if he ends up hitting a bomb in this game.

Pick: Manny Machado to record a RBI (+120)

MLB parlays

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