The MLB World Tour: London Series gets underway on Saturday with the St. Louis Cardinals taking on the Chicago Cubs. These two clubs will play a quick two-game series over the weekend at London Stadium before hiking back to the United States.
St. Louis will look to pull off the international upset over the Cubbies, and Adam Wainwright will do what he can to make that possible. Find out how I'm tailing the 41-year-old hurler in my free MLB picks for the Cubs vs. Cardinals on Saturday, June 24.
Cubs vs Cardinals odds
Cubs vs Cardinals predictions
Slated to take the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals is RHP Adam Wainwright. There is no denying that it has been a tough campaign for the 41-year-old, who is 3-1 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.67 WHIP through eight starts.
I am not the most optimistic about Wainwright’s increase in production anytime soon, but I am interested in buying low on him in the strikeout department — where his total is set at a mere 3.5 for this contest with plus money on the Over. More than anything else, this play is a fade of the Chicago Cubs’ strikeout-prone lineup.
The Cubbies revamped their roster while making several key offseason additions, most notably adding Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, and Trey Mancini. However, that group has only added to Chicago’s strikeout problem.
In 2022, the Cubs finished 22nd in the league in K rate when facing right-handed pitching. This year, they rank 24th in the same category.
Looking at Saturday’s projected starting lineup, five of the nine hitters possess a K rate north of 21% this season, and those strikeout woes could continue against Wainwright.
Over his past 14 starts against Chicago, the righty is 5-5 with a 3.33 ERA while averaging 4.2 strikeouts per game.
My best bet: Adam Wainwright Over 3.5 strikeouts (+105)
Cubs vs Cardinals same-game parlay
Wainwright Over 3.5 Ks
Under 14.5
Cardinals ML
This same-game parlay builds upon itself. I already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, but let me break down the other two.
You may notice that the total is extremely high for a MLB game, which is a product of playing at a relatively smaller London Stadium and in hitter-friendly weather conditions. With that said, 14 or 14.5 feels like an over-correction, especially given that the fences have been lengthened since the last time the MLB traveled to this stadium in 2019.
A great breakdown of this stadium by Derek Carty can be found here:
????/THREAD The #STLCards and #NextStartsHere play in London this weekend... and anyone who thinks they have any idea how this park is going to play is fooling themself.
— Derek Carty (@DerekCarty) June 23, 2023
Here's everything we DO and DON'T KNOW about London Stadium...
Lastly, a lower-scoring game in which Wainwright pitches strongly should benefit the Cardinals. The biggest hurdle to get over for St. Louis is the Justin Steele vs. Wainwright pitching matchup, but if Wainwright holds his own, then this matchup gets much closer than the –130/+110 odds indicate.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Cubs vs Cardinals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This game opened much closer to a pick ‘em before some steam brought up Chicago to –130. This movement makes sense, given that Steele is a much stronger pitcher than Wainwright.
With that said, through three career starts against St. Louis, Steele is just 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. That brings us to the total, which has opened at a monstrous 14.5 and has since dropped slightly to 14 and even some 13.5’s out there.
In this department, I once again re-route you to the Twitter thread by Derek Carty above on London Stadium. I think there is recency bias involved in this line, particularly with how the Mexico Series went and the last edition of the London Series.
Again, the fences have been lengthened and we could see a slightly lower scoring output this time around. I do not necessarily trust either pitcher fully, but neither lineup is anything to brag home about.
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Trend to know
Opposing starting pitchers have recorded at least four strikeouts in eight of the past nine games against Chicago. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals
Cubs vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | London Stadium, London, UK |
| Date: | Saturday, June 24, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Justin Steele (7-2, 2.71 ERA): It has been a terrific campaign for the left-handed hurler, who will look to keep it going against a team he has typically struggled against. His underlying metrics are just as strong, ranking in the 80th percentile or better in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit rate, xERA/xwOBA, xSLG, and Barrel rate. Boasting a five-pitch arsenal, Steele mostly relies on his four-seam fastball to set up his slider.
Adam Wainwright (3-1, 5.56 ERA): It has certainly not been smooth sailing for the right-handed veteran, who is now in his 18th year in the big leagues. With that said, Chicago is a club he is more than familiar with, having spent all 18 of those seasons in St. Louis. Over his past 14 starts against the Cubs, Wainwright is 5-5 with a 3.33 ERA and averages 4.2 strikeouts per game.
