It has been a tough start to the 2021 MLB season for both the St. Louis Cardinals and the Washington Nationals.
The Cardinals’ pitching has let them down while the Nationals haven’t been able to get that clutch hit and now have to deal with the loss of Stephen Strasburg for an extended period. So, who has the betting edge as each team tries to build some momentum in their series opener?
Check out our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Nationals on Monday, April 19, with first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.
Cardinals vs Nationals odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonPointsBet USA pegged this contest a -110 pick 'em at Sunday afternoon's outset and stretched St. Louis to -125 a couple of times. As of 4:15 p.m. ET, the Cardinals are -115 while taking 73 percent of tickets and 79 percent of cash on the moneyline. The total stuck on the opener of 8 most of today, save for two brief stints at 8.5, with 63 percent of tickets on the Under and 62 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameCardinals vs Nationals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jack Flaherty (2-0, 4.11 ERA): The Cardinals’ ace has bounced back after a rough start on Opening Day. The right-hander has responded by allowing just one run on four hits over his last two games. Flaherty relies mostly on his four-seam fastball and his slider but early on he has been finding too much of the plate with his heater. He needs to locate to have success a solid hitting team like the Nats.
Joe Ross (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Ross has looked great in his first two starts this season after not pitching in 2020 and has given a much-needed boost to a rotation that's dealing with injuries and some early-season struggles. The right-hander has a tough sinker and slider that are hard to barrel up and, thanks to those pitches, he has yet to allow a run this season on just six hits.
Weather
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Key injuries
Cardinals: Harrison Bader CF (Out), Tyler O'Neill OF (Out).
Nationals: Will Harris RP (Out), Wander Suero RP (Out), Luis Avilan RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cardinals are 1-6 in their last seven games against the Nationals. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Nationals.
Moneyline pick
This is an intriguing matchup of starting pitchers. Both Flaherty and Ross are in a groove right now and both already have a fantastic start against each other’s team under their belts this season.
Flaherty only needed to go 5.0 innings in a 14-3 blowout win back on April 13, where he allowed one run on three hits while striking out six.
Then, the very next day, Ross took the ball for the Nationals and shut down the Cardinals on four hits over six innings while striking out five in an eventual 6-0 Washington victory.
The biggest difference between these two teams is scoring. The Cardinals rank ninth in MLB at 4.88 runs per game, while the Nationals rank 24th ar just 3.80. But here’s the thing — the Nationals are actually the better hitting team.
Washington ranks second in team batting average and eighth in OPS, while St. Louis ranks 20th and 23rd, respectively, in those categories. With Ross on the mound tonight and the bullpens being close to a wash, the value is with the Nats as slight underdogs.
PREDICTION: Nationals (+110)
Over/Under pick
The moneyline play leads right into the total and you can guess which way we're leaning. With a total of 8.0, these starters are probably not getting the respect they deserve.
As noted, both of these starters have had success in this matchup recently and both lineups have their respective issues at the plate. The Nationals have failed to get that clutch hit with regularity this season, while the Cardinals are relying too much on the home run.
And those dingers have started to dry up. St. Louis has lost six of its last eight games and in those losses, the team has averaged just 2.0 runs per game. While the Nats’ bats are getting hits, it can’t be ignored that the team is scoring just 3.8 runs per game this season, resulting in the Under going 6-2 over its last eight games.
Strong starting pitching will lead to another Under in this one.
PREDICTION: Under 8 (-110)
Cardinals vs Nationals betting card
- Nationals (+110)
- Under 8 (-110)
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