Cardinals vs Giants Prediction, Picks & Odds — Monday, September 22

The San Francisco Giants are slowing down at the wrong time as they look to erase a three-game deficit in the National League wild-card race, but after a win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday they will still have a week left to right the ship.

With the St. Louis Cardinals looking shaky in their own right as they look to fend off elimination, we’ll explain in our Cardinals vs Giants predictions why both pitchers should look comfortable in a low-scoring affair.

Without further ado, let’s hand out some MLB picks for Monday, September 22.

Cardinals vs Giants prediction

Cardinals vs Giants best bet: Under 7.5 (+100)

Some may say luck, but I say smart baseball. Oftentimes, we get caught up looking too quickly at the helpful metrics available to us, and it’s easy to write off a pitcher like Michael McGreevy simply by looking into his expected numbers.

Now, they’re not very good. The rookie has a .284 Expected Batting Average and a 4.47 Expected ERA, and that doesn’t help build trust. He’s continued to pitch well, however, running a 3.57 ERA across his last nine starts from August to September.

That’s because all McGreevy knows is ground balls, and all this St. Louis Cardinals team knows is defense. The gloves have been spectacular, but the infield has been strong in its own right with the fourth-most Outs Above Average this year according to Statcast. Why, then, would we possibly expect the right-hander to put a foot wrong when 47.2% of his contact is coming on the ground and just 4.2% of batters are walking?

The San Francisco Giants are just 18th in OPS to ground-ballers this year, and even better, they’re 20th in batting average. Considering San Francisco is hitting .183 in the last two weeks and stands as one of the coldest offenses in the league, you have to love McGreevy here.

Now, the Cardinals don’t offer a ton more hope with an 85 wRC+ in the last two weeks. Strikeouts, walks, and power have been a massive struggle, and that’s great news for Justin Verlander here, who has pitched to the Three True Outcomes for many years now.

St. Louis is a contact-oriented group, meaning the influx of strikeouts has all but killed the offense, and Verlander has both improved mightily in the last few weeks and will also have a picture-perfect matchup. Let’s bet on these arms.

Caesars QuickPick: Our Cardinals vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)

Before we get into the lone bat who may show enough promise to believe in here, let’s talk once again about McGreevy, who has started to pick things up in the strikeout department. He’s now struck out four batters in consecutive appearances, and his whiff rate has come back up to 21.1% this month as he begins to throw fewer sinkers in the hope it will help add strikeouts to his growing repertoire. San Francisco is just waiting around up there right now, walking in 10.9% of plate appearances and striking out in 25.4% over the last two weeks, and that should give McGreevy the boost he needs to get home on this number.

Jung-Hoo Lee is also in a great spot against McGreevy, who he’s 1-for-2 off in his career. The second-year outfielder is hitting a team-best .339 against ground-ballers, and he did just seem to break out of a miniature rut with two hits on Saturday. We just need one hit here.

Cardinals vs Giants odds

• Moneyline: St. Louis +128 | San Francisco -152
• Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-172) | San Francisco -1.5 (+142)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Cardinals vs Giants trend

The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 28 games (+10.75 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Giants.

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