This NL Central series continues tonight with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the St. Louis Cardinals. MLB odds have Milwaukee as a moderate -168 favorite, while the total sits at 7.5.
My Cardinals vs. Brewers prediction is not bullish on St. Louis' chances at finally finding a groove that simply might not be coming.
Read on for my MLB picks for Saturday, May 11.
Cardinals vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Brewers -1.5 (+130 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta is a great candidate to back most nights, and tonight will be no different. Through seven starts, Peralta is 3-1 with a 3.49 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
The Brewers have won in six of those seven starts, with four coming by at least a two-run margin. Based on his underlying metrics, regression is unlikely for Peralta as he ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in xBA and average exit velocity.
Following the right-hander is a trustworthy bullpen that ranks in the top half of the league in ERA and xFIP. This pitching staff should also get plenty of run support, considering that Milwaukee ranks in the Top 7 in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs, and stolen bases.
It outranks the St. Louis Cardinals in every single one of those categories by a wide margin. The Cardinals have not been able to hit anything this season, but that is not their only disadvantage as right-hander Kyle Gibson is slated to take the mound.
Gibson hasn't necessarily performed poorly, but he falls short of Peralta in both ERA and WHIP. Furthermore, his underlying metrics are far worse as the right-hander ranks in the 18th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, and barrel rate.
This expected regression is likely to come to fruition against the Brewers. The only advantage St. Louis owns in this matchup is in the bullpen, but Milwaukee’s is also good enough to the point where it doesn’t come close to offsetting all these other variables.
Cardinals vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Brewers -1.5
Under 7.5
While I think the Crew can win by two or more runs, I project this game to stay on the lower-scoring side. Even though Gibson is due for regression against this strong Milwaukee lineup, I don’t think he will get obliterated.
At the same time, both bullpens are strong enough to limit the damage. We could see something along the lines of a 4-2 or 5-2 Brewers victory in this spot, especially when you look at St. Louis’ struggling lineup going against Peralta.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cardinals vs Brewers odds
Cardinals vs Brewers live odds
Cardinals vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-145) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+131)
- Moneyline: St. Louis +136 | Milwaukee -162
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Cardinals vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a -162 favorite and has since been bet up to -168.
- The market will keep moving this line in the Brewers’ direction, given all the aforementioned variables.
- The total opened at 7.5 and remains at that price.
- I think the public will lean towards the Under, given Peralta's and Gibson's success thus far.
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Cardinals vs Brewers trend
Milwaukee has won nine of the past 10 meetings between these two clubs, with seven of those nine wins coming by at least a two-run margin. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs Brewers.
Cardinals vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Kyle Gibson (2-2, 3.68 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Freddy Peralta (3-1, 3.49 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Brewers latest injuries
Cardinals vs Brewers weather
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