It’s a great day to be betting on MLB player props. The bases are juiced with all 30 teams taking the field, and I’m ready to drive home some winners.
It feels like you can never go broke fading the Baltimore Orioles' pitching staff, and that has me targeting St. Louis Cardinals OF Lars Nootbaar. Meanwhile, I expect Carlos Rodon to keep racking up the Ks as the New York Yankees take on the Los Angeles Angels.
Check out those and more for Tuesday, May 27.
Best MLB player props today
Nootbaar o0.5 RBI (+210)
Caminero 2+ TB (+155)
Rodon o7.5 Ks (+105)
MLB props for May 27
Lars Nootbar Over 0.5 RBI (+210 at bet365)
It has been a bit of an up-and-down season for St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar. He enters tonight’s action in a bit of a slump, but there’s no one better to bust out against these days than the Baltimore Orioles.
Nootbaar is hitting .239 with a .735 OPS this season, and he’s been productive, scoring 32 runs and driving in another 25. But he’s also been a little unlucky.
Noot’s expected batting average is .266, which is in the 63rd percentile. He also ranks in the 85th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and chase rate, meaning he is a patient hitter, who hits the ball hard and often. So, the hits will come back.
Why not against the Orioles? Baltimore has one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball. And while they hand the ball to one of their better starters in Tomoyuki Sugano, even he isn’t as good as some of his numbers suggest.
The 35-year-old Japanese right-hander owns a 3.07 ERA, but his expected ERA is nearly a run and a half higher at 4.32, which ranks in the 33rd percentile. He also ranks in the 23rd percentile in xBA and the fourth percentile in strikeouts.
The Cardinals should get some baserunners on against Sugano tonight, and I love the odds for Nootbar to drive one of those runners home.
Junior Caminero 2+ total bases (+155 at bet365)
The Tampa Bay Rays are red hot, winners of five in a row, and third baseman Junior Caminero has been a big part of that.
The 21-year-old is locked in at the dish. He’s in the middle of a four-game hitting streak where he has a .467 batting average and a 1.433 OPS, which includes five extra-base hits, and I’m betting he stays hot in tonight’s matchup against the Minnesota Twins.
The Twins hand the ball to Joe Ryan, who has pitched well this season with a 3.18 expected ERA. The right-hander doesn’t overpower hitters but uses his combination of a four-seam fastball, sweeper, and splitter to keep hitters off balance.
That said, when he does get hit, he gets hit hard. Ryan ranks in the 32nd percentile in average exit velocity, the 43rd percentile in hard-hit percentage, and the fifth percentile in barrel rate. He also does this while primarily being a fly-ball pitcher.
That plays well into Caminero’s game, who ranks in the 75th percentile in average exit velocity and the 84th in hard-hit rate. I like the Rays' third baseman to get into one again tonight, extend his hitting streak to five games, and get two or more total bases for the fifth straight game at the same time.
Carlos Rodon Over 7.5 strikeouts (+108 at FanDuel)
When Gerrit Cole got hurt, the New York Yankees knew someone would have to step up in their starting rotation, and many looked at Carlos Rodon, but things weren’t pretty the way his season started.
The veteran left-hander was pitching to a 5.48 ERA over his first four starts. Boy, does that feel like a long time ago, because Rodon has been spinnin’ it ever since.
The 32-year-old has allowed just seven earned runs over his last seven starts and has held opponents to one earned run or fewer five times over that stretch. His expected ERA is now a sparkling 2.85 while limiting opponents to a .200 expected batting average.
But what has made Rodon close to unhittable these days is the strikeout. The southpaw is sitting batters down like it's going out of style. His strikeout rate for the season is 31% and ranks in the 91st percentile, and I expect that he’s going to keep racking up the punchouts when he takes the mound against the Los Angeles Angels tonight.
The Halos haven’t been the worst-hitting team this season, but that’s in large part because the Colorado Rockies exist. And they have really struggled vs. southpaws.
Los Angeles has the third-worst batting average, ranks 18th in OPS, and 24th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching this season.
The Angels also strike out. A lot. Only the Rockies have a higher K-rate than the Halos’ 27.3% vs. lefties.
Rodon's strikeout number is a high 7.5 but he’s topped that in six of his nine starts, and this is arguably his best matchup for Ks this season. The plus money makes this even more appealing for my MLB picks.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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