The Atlanta Braves will try to get back to .500 and gain ground on the Philadelphia Phillies when the two begin a three-game series tonight at Citizens Bank Park.
My Braves vs. Phillies predictions break down why Ronald Acuna Jr.'s eagerness remains a weakness as he works his way back from injury.
Read on for my full MLB picks ahead of this 6:45 p.m. clash on Tuesday, May 27 on TBS.
Braves vs Phillies prediction
My Braves vs Phillies best bet: Ronald Acuna Jr. 2+ strikeouts (+300 at bet365)
In 13 plate appearances, Ronald Acuna Jr. has put six balls into play, each leaving his bat above 93 mph. Four of those balls came off at 105 mph or faster, and he’s hitting both fastballs and off-speed with ferocity.
But Acuna has also struck out six times. He’s got a whiff rate of 36% and a chase rate of 28%, and he’s struck out multiple times in two of his three games, including a pair in four ABs on Sunday.
Despite being a right-handed hitter, Acuna has long performed better in same-sided matchups than he has against LHP. And the Philadelphia Phillies know this, which is why they adjusted their rotation heading into this series.
Ranger Suarez will face Acuna first, and he’s had great success against the slugger. In 22 career appearances against Suarez, the Atlanta outfielder has just four hits and three walks, with two doubles and no home runs. While he’s struck out just twice, the price of +300 is far too high.
That’s in large part because Suarez isn’t going to give Acuna many opportunities to barrel up a pitch. He ranks in the 99th percentile in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate, 95th percentile in xERA, and 97th in average exit velocity. He utilizes a near-even mixture of a changeup, four-seam fastball, and sinker — a pitch that Acuna has whiffed on every time he’s swung at it this season.
As the Atlanta Braves leadoff hitter, Acuna will get as many ABs as anybody in the lineup. And while it’s a small sample size, he’s swinging very aggressively, which is understandable given how long he sat on the sidelines and how well he hit during his rehab assignment.
He will want to take advantage of a very hitter-friendly park, and I expect Suarez to use this to his advantage with a sinker and changeup combo that can start under Acuna’s hands and either cut back into the zone or drop completely beneath it.
Will Acuna get on the end of something for an extra-base hit? It’s very likely. But if you’re giving me implied odds of 25% for a guy who is striking out nearly as often as Acuna is, I’m not passing that up.
Braves vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Ronald Acuna Jr. 2+ strikeouts
Spencer Strider Over 4.5 hits allowed
Over 7.5
The Phillies don’t strike out very often, getting rung up fewer than 10 times as a team in 10 of their last 13. They have the ninth-fewest strikeouts this season at the plate, and Spencer Strider’s stuff simply hasn’t been what it used to be through his first two starts.
Given he’s not one to induce many ground balls, it’s led to him giving up 11 hits over 9 1/3 IP with 5+ hits in both starts. The weather conditions favor the hitters today, and I’ll be shocked if the team with the third-best batting average in the majors doesn’t get to five hits against him.
I also think we’re in for some runs. Citizens Bank Park is a favorable venue for hitters, and Philadelphia’s bullpen has an ERA of 4.60. Suarez is likely to go about six innings, and Strider’s already given up a home run in each of his two starts. With the power these lineups possess, eight runs is an easily reachable floor.
Don’t forget to take advantage of bet365’s Safety Net Bet for this same-game parlay, where you can bet up to $10 and get your stake back in bonus bets if it doesn’t hit!
Braves vs Phillies odds
Braves vs Phillies live odds
Braves vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta -105 | Philadelphia -115
- Run line: Atlanta +1.5 (-210) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+175)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-125) | Under 8 (+105)
Braves vs Phillies trend
The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 76% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies.
How to watch Braves vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Tuesday, 5-27-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Braves starting pitcher | Spencer Strider (0-2, 5.79 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Ranger Suarez (3-0, 3.70 ERA) |
Braves vs Phillies latest injuries
Braves vs Phillies weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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