The Oklahoma City Thunder can punch their ticket to the NBA Finals with a win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday night.
Oklahoma City holds a 3-1 series chokehold in the Western Conference finals with the venue switching back to the Paycom Center, where OKC blasted Minnesota by a collective margin of 41 points in the opening two games.
Eliminating the feisty T-Wolves is still a tall task — one that 7-foot-1 center Chet Holmgren is more than up to. My Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions like Holmgren to land a couple of knockout punches from beyond the arc in Game 5.
Here are my best NBA picks for Wednesday, May 28.
Who will win Timberwolves vs Thunder Game 5?
The Oklahoma City Thunder are sizable home favorites, and the moneyline odds carry with them an implied win probability of 79%. Oklahoma City’s depth and defense have been too much for the Minnesota Timberwolves to manage, and I expect OKC to slam the door on this series at home on Wednesday.
Timberwolves vs Thunder prediction
My best bet: Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 threes (+105 at bet365)
Chet Holmgren had a huge hand in Game 4’s victory, scoring 21 points for the Thunder along with seven rebounds and three blocked shots.
Six of those points came from beyond the arc, with Holmgren finishing 2 for 4 from distance on Monday. The rangy 7-footer hadn’t been sharp from outside in the first three games of the WCF, firing a combined 3 for 11 from deep (27%).
The return to the Paycom Center helps keep the heat on Chet’s touch from outside, along with the Timberwolves’ defense trying to pack the paint against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams.
Those two scorers are attacking the interior and kicking out to OKC’s perimeter threats, with Holmgren, Alex Caruso, and Carson Wallace launching up 14 total 3-point attempts in Game 4.
Despite his height, Holmgren is often on the outside, involved in screen action for those two stars. He’s seen plenty of clean chances from distance in this series.
Ten of his total 15 3-point attempts have been “wide open” with no defender within six feet, and 14 of those long-range looks have had at least four feet of space between Holmgren and his matchup. Chet just needs to knock them down.
He was quite active from outside at the end of the regular season and carried that over to the Round 1 squash of Memphis, in which the Gonzaga product knocked down 11 triples in the first three games of the series.
Since then, he’s cooled as the OKC rotation transformed versus Denver and Nikola Jokic in Round 2. Holmgren shared defensive duties with Isaiah Hartenstein against the Nuggets and averaged less than a triple per game in the seven-game series.
However, against the Wolves, Oklahoma City is running out a smaller lineup with Holmgren as the lone center. The offensive spacing was exceptional in Game 4, and Minnesota has to make a hard decision to either take away stars SGA and Williams or crack down on OKC’s role players.
Game 5 player modelling is right on the fence with Holmgren’s 3-point production, with early forecasts at 1.5 makes from outside. My number is at 1.8 3-pointers from Holmgren, which should have the Over 1.5 priced at -106. We can get this prop result at plus-money at bet365.
Timberwolves vs Thunder same-game parlay
Chet Holmgren 2+ threes
Chet Holmgren 7+ rebounds
OKC Thunder -8.5
Holmgren knocked down two triples in Game 4, and he’s been wide open from outside in this series.
Player projections for Chet call for more than eight rebounds. He’s pulled down seven boards in two of the first four games.
The Thunder come back home with a chance to put Minnesota away. Oklahoma City learned the hard way when Denver was on the ropes in Game 6, so I expect urgency from OKC.
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Timberwolves vs Thunder odds
Timberwolves vs Thunder live odds
Timberwolves vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +8.5 | Oklahoma City -8.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota +304 | Oklahoma City -360
- Over/Under: Over 220 | Under 220
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- After the Game 4 win, oddsmakers installed Oklahoma City as an 8.5-point home favorite for Game 5. This is a tough higher than the closing spread of -7 and -8 from Games 1 and 2, in which OKC cruised to covers.
- The Over/Under total opened at 220.5 points. After Game 1 finished Under a closing number of 219.5, the next three contests have gone Over totals shorter than this current O/U.
- According to Covers Consensus, 56% of picks are taking the points with Minnesota, while 72% of total picks are siding with the Over.
Timberwolves vs Thunder betting resources
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder props & best bets
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder first basket picks
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder same-game parlay
- Anthony Edwards picks
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander picks
Timberwolves vs Thunder trend
Oklahoma City is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS when laying -7 or higher at home this postseason. The Thunder went 28-5 SU and 21-10-2 ATS as home favorites of seven points or more in the regular season. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Thunder.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Wednesday, 5-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Timberwolves vs Thunder latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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