With their backs against the wall, who will step up for San Diego in my Brewers vs. Padres prop picks?
I'm backing the big names to deliver under the bright lights of an elimination game, with Brice Turang doing his part in sending the Milwaukee Brewers to the next round.
Tap into my MLB picks for Wednesday, Oct. 10, and let's build on our five-unit playoffs.
Best Brewers vs Padres props
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| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Walker Buehler Over 11.5 outs recorded |
56% |
 Brice Turang 2+ H/R/RBI |
51% |
| Manny Machado 2+ H/R/RBI |
50% |
Prop pick #1: Walker Buehler Over 10.5 outs recorded
Across 45 plate appearances in this matchup, Walker Buehler has held the Milwaukee Brewers to a .226 xBA.
That includes a perfect 0-for-4 mark against William Contreras, who's been Milwaukee’s hottest hitter through the NLDS.
I'd price this closer to 60%, so we're going to ride with Walker in Game 4.
Prop pick #2: Brice Turang 2+ H/R/RBI
If anyone is going to have success against Buehler, I love this look from Brice Turang.
The Milwaukee Brewers second baseman registered at least one hit in eight of his last nine games to end the regular season, and while he hasn't had much success in the NLDS, he's had some success against the Padres right-hander in his career.
Across a small sample size (1-for-4), Turang owns a .345 xBA with a triple against Buehler in his career and has absolutely mashed righties, posting a .901 OPS while hitting 18 of his 21 homers against them.
Milwaukee will need him to kick-start this offense if they want to send San Diego packing tonight, which Jason Wilson expects to happen in his Brewers vs. Padres predictions.
I'd play this up to 55%.
Prop pick #3: Manny Machado 2+ H/R/RBI
Manny Machado has had a fantastic postseason; I have no problem taking this at 50% and would absolutely play it up to 55%.
Coming into tonight, the Padres star is rocking a 1.211 OPS in the playoffs and has cashed this trade in three of his five playoff games. With the Brewers likely turning to an opener for Game 4, I'm comfortable in saying Machado has become matchup-proof these playoffs.
Let's back him with the Padres' season on the line; Machado's had a knack for getting on base throughout the postseason, and his 11% walk rate will play today.
- Prop picks: 6-6, +4.16 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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