The two-time defending champs need to get up off the mat fast, and our Brewers vs. Dodgers expert picks ahead of Game 3 tonight in the NLCS in part cast doubt on that happening.
That comes from Jon Metler, who's taking Milwaukee to prevail again, putting the Dodgers in a deep 3-0 hole. Elsewhere, Josh Inglis believes William Contreras will stay inferno hot, and Joe Osborne is eyeing a top-tier pitching matchup leading to a low-scoring game. But Neil Parker thinks the Dodgers can get to Robert Gasser enough.
Let's dive into our MLB picks ahead of the critical contest on Wednesday, Oct. 14, with the first pitch slated for 8 p.m. ET.
Brewers vs Dodgers expert picks for Game 3
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: William Contreras 2+ total bases |
37% |
 Jon Metler: Brewers moneyline |
38% |
 Joe Osborne: Under 7.5 |
52% |
 Neil Parker: Robert Gasser Over 1.5 earned runs |
56% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: William Contreras 2+ total bases
Price: 37¢ at Polymarket
I'm playing this to 40%. If the Los Angeles Dodgers pitch to William Contreras, there will likely be less traffic on the bases, making the 2+ total bases angle more appealing than the 2+ HR + RBI market at a worse price.
The three-hole hitter has recorded multiple bases in four of his six playoff games and is slugging nearly .800 this postseason. He gets a righty-vs-lefty matchup and has seen plenty of an L.A. bullpen that remains a weak point.
I already have a trade on his Over 0.5 walks at 41%, but if the Dodgers decide to pitch to him, that could be a mistake.
Our Quinn Allen is also backing Contreras as part of his Brewers vs. Dodgers prediction.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Brewers moneyline
Price: 38¢ at Polymarket
At 38%, I'll take the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 3 of the NLCS, as I make them closer to a 42% underdog.
The market seems to be buying into the narrative that the Dodgers won't fall behind 0-3 in the series, creating value on Milwaukee. Los Angeles may hold the starting pitching edge through Blake Snell, but I trust the Brewers' bullpen over the Dodgers' unit any day of the week, especially after an off day.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Under 7.5
Price: 52¢ at Polymarket
Desperation can only get you so far. Even at home, I don’t trust these Dodgers bats. Their .591 playoff OPS has dropped to .447 this series, and Game 2 included just three hits and two walks. Robert Gasser posted a 1.67 September ERA, and the Brewers boast a bullpen sporting a ridiculous 0.31 playoff ERA behind him.
On the other side, Snell eviscerated Milwaukee in last year’s NLCS with eight scoreless innings, one hit allowed, and 10 strikeouts. Add an 11-1-1 Under run over L.A.’s last 13 games, stretching back to the regular season, and I’ll happily back another low-scoring evening.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Robert Gasser Over 1.5 earned runs
Price: 56¢ at Polymarket
While Gasser shined down the stretch for the Brewers with a 1.67 ERA across his final five starts, his underlying 4.27 xERA and 4.26 xFIP are far more telling. I’m anticipating Gasser's hands will be full in Game 3 after the Dodgers finished fifth in wOBA and fourth in ISO against lefties during the regular season.
Additionally, the Dodgers have hit Gasser hard while posting a .447 wOBA and .355 ISO, and the southpaw sports a career 4.47 xERA and 4.71 xFIP against Los Angeles.
I'd recommend this Over to 58%.
How to watch Brewers vs Dodgers Game 3
| Location | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, Calif. |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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