The Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays are back at it tonight for Game 2 of the ALCS, and our Guardians vs. Rays expert picks reveal a split among our Covers experts on which team will come out on top.
Jon Metler is backing Cleveland to continue its postseason surge, while Dustin Saracini expects Tampa Bay to even the series behind Freddy Peralta. Neil Parker sees value in a higher-scoring affair, while Joe Osborne is fading Peralta's strikeout total.
Check out all four selections and our latest MLB picks for Tuesday, Oct. 13, ahead of tonight's 8 p.m. ET first pitch.
Guardians vs Rays expert picks for Game 2
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Jon Metler: Guardians moneyline |
45% |
 Neil Parker: Over 6.5 |
54% |
 Joe Osborne: Freddy Peralta Under 3.5 strikeouts |
51% |
 Dustin Saracini: Rays moneyline |
56% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Jon Metler's expert pick: Guardians moneyline
Price: 45% at Polymarket
The Cleveland Guardians are trading at 45% to win Game 2 of the ALCS, and I'm hitting the button at that price. I make their win probability closer to 50%, giving us a solid edge.
We could break this matchup down from several different baseball angles, but let's keep it simple: The Guardians are red-hot after rallying from a 0-2 deficit to eliminate the Chicago White Sox.
In baseball, you ride the streak rather than fade it. When my projections show value on a team playing with this much momentum, I'll hit the button all day.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Over 6.5
Price: 54% at Polymarket
Game 1 finished with 10 runs, and the two teams combined to leave 14 runners on base. The Guardians also went 3-for-12 with runners in scoring position, so I'd price this Over closer to 57%.
Cleveland also ranks second in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA during the postseason while averaging 5.0 runs per game.
Additionally, while Tampa Bay Rays veteran Freddy Peralta was sharp to close out the regular season (0.79 ERA through his final five starts), his .187 BABIP and 94.0% strand rate are unsustainable alongside his 4.44 xFIP during that stretch.
Tampa also has positive statistical correction coming at the dish, with the Rays' expected batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA all well above their respective actual marks to start the postseason.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Freddy Peralta Under 3.5 strikeouts
Price: 51% at Polymarket
There are plenty of factors at play, most notably that Peralta might not stay out there long enough to pile up many strikeouts. I'm expecting a short leash after he got yanked just 66 pitches into his ALDS start against the New York Yankees despite allowing only one earned run and three hits. He finished with three strikeouts.
Even with more runway during the regular season, he wasn't exactly mowing hitters down, averaging 4.88 strikeouts per start. The Guardians add another obstacle with a low 20.8% regular-season strikeout rate and just 20.4% this postseason.
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Rays moneyline
Price: 56% at Polymarket
I'd price this closer to 60%, so we'll have to take advantage and ride with, in my opinion, the best team in the American League. Peralta has been incredible since the calendar flipped to September, owning a 0.96 ERA across five starts. He followed that up with 4 2/3 innings of one-run baseball against the Yankees in the ALDS.
On the other side is Parker Messick, and while he's limited the Rays to a .186 xBA, the lights have been too bright for him in the postseason, as he's posted a 5.40 ERA in his two ALDS outings. It's time for the Rays to knot the series at home.
How to watch Guardians vs Rays Game 2
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Fla. |
| Date | Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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