There are several afternoon games on the MLB betting board this Wednesday, including a crucial NL Central showdown between the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs. These teams are wrapping up a three-game series at Wrigley Field after splitting the first two contests with the Cubs winning 1-0 last night.
With that victory, the Cubs are now just four games behind the Brewers for the division lead. We could have another close, low-scoring battle today with the Cubs installed as -105 underdogs and the Over/Under at 7. Here are my best free Brewers vs. Cubs MLB picks and predictions for August 30.
Brewers vs Cubs odds
Brewers vs Cubs predictions
The Cubs will hand the pill to veteran Kyle Hendricks today. Hendricks is the last remaining player from their 2016 World Series squad and while his play has declined over the last few seasons, he's still a reliable option on the mound.
Hendricks doesn't generate many whiffs but he has tremendous control and ranks in the fifth percentile of all pitchers in walk rate (4.2%) this year. He has actually ranked in the 10th percentile in this category four times within the last six years and his career walk rate sits at just 5.4%, which ranks 21st among all qualified starters since Hendricks' debut in 2014.
In 16 starts since the beginning of June, Hendricks has walked more than a single batter just three times. That span includes a July 4th showdown against these very Brewers when he allowed four hits and one walk in six innings of one-run ball. With the Under 1.5 walks for the right-hander paying out at close to even money, don't hesitate to grab it.
My best bet: Kyle Hendricks Under 1.5 walks (-115 at bet365)
Brewers vs Cubs same-game parlay
Kyle Hendricks Under 1.5 walks
Brice Turang Under 1.5 total bases
Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 hits
Milwaukee second baseman Brice Turang is a promising young player but he has struggled as a rookie, batting just .222 and slugging .319 through 108 games. The Under 1.5 total bases for Turang is installed at -175 for an implied probability of 63.64%. It's a number he's gone below in 17 of his last 21 games (80.95%). Factor in Hendricks' ability to induce soft contact and it makes sense to fade him on this number.
The Brewers are sending righty Brandon Woodruff to the mound. Woodruff has looked very sharp this year and has a strong resume over the last several seasons. However, Cubs sophomore Seiya Suzuki has gone 5-for-6 at the plate against him in his career. Suzuki is hitless over the last two games but he had at least one hit in 10 straight games before this series and was batting .432 during that span.
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Brewers vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board as either a pick'em or the Cubs installed as slim -115 home faves. Money has come in on the Brewers, who are now installed at about -115 with the Cubs coming back at about -105.
The Cubs have gone 25-11 in their last 36 games and are now eight games above .500 while on pace to make the postseason in a Wild Card spot. Last night's loss snapped a nine-game winning streak for the Brewers but they remain four games ahead of the Cubs in the NL Central. The total was set at just 7 last night but the Under cashed easily and we're seeing the same number tonight.
While excellent pitching from Justin Steele and Corbin Burnes was a big reason for that one-run contest last night, another factor was the weather and we're once again getting a stiff 19-mph breeze blowing towards the infield today.
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Trend to know
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games (+9.00 Units / 81% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs
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Brewers vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, August 30, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Wisconsin, Marquee |
Starting pitchers
Brandon Woodruff (3-1, 2.65 ERA): Woodruff looked terrific in his first two starts of the year before hitting the IL with a rotator cuff injury. Since returning to the rotation at the beginning of the month, he has picked up where he left off, limiting opponents to a .175 batting average across four starts. While he has a small sample size this year, his expected ERA of 2.84 is promising and his ERA of 2.84 in 70 starts over the last three years is a strong indicator of future success.
Kyle Hendricks (5-7, 3.80 ERA): Hendricks has been a bit inconsistent with a 5.00 ERA in five starts this month while his expected ERA sits at 4.13 on the year. He tends to induce soft contact and ranks in the 15th percentile in average exit velocity and hard hit rate but his expected batting average (.266) is in the bottom 20th percentile. With the Brewers batting just .236 (with an xBA of .237), it will be interesting to see whether he can make them miss.
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