Brewers vs Cubs Picks and Predictions: Chewing Up Wrigley Pitchers

With two shaky starters on the mound, runs could pile up early in a matchup with a history of lighting the scoreboard. See why we're backing more first five fireworks with our MLB betting picks for Brewers vs. Cubs.

Last Updated: Aug 19, 2022 8:56 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Ian Happ Chicago Cubs MLB picks
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Both the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers head into today’s matchup fresh off of getaway day victories. The Cubs extended their win streak to three with a 3-2 victory over the Baltimore Orioles, while the Brewers defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-3 to get a split in their four-game series. 

The Brew Crew sits three games behind the NL Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals and is just one game out of the Wild Card race. Meanwhile, the Cubbies are 17 games below .500. 

Can Chicago play spoiler, or will the Brewers snap the Cubs’ three-game winning streak? Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Cubs on August 19.

Brewers vs Cubs odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Oddsmakers are giving no love to the home team as the Cubs opened +125, though they have dipped a bit to the +118-123 range. The Brewers began at -145 and have slipped to -130 at WynnBET. The total has stayed at 9.0 with the Over and Under at -110. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Brewers vs Cubs predictions

Picks made on 8/19/2022 at 2:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Brewers vs Cubs game info

Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Date: Friday, August 19, 2022
First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin, Marquee Sports Network

Brewers vs Cubs betting preview

Starting pitchers

Aaron Ashby (2-10, 4.24 ERA): The 24-year-old left-hander is considered one of the bright young stars in the majors and the Brewers locked him up to a five-year deal last month. He has appeared in 12 games as a starter and six as a reliever. In his last start against the St. Louis Cardinals, he had six strong innings allowing two runs on three hits, though the two runs were solo homers. Still, he is better than his record indicates. 

Keegan Thompson (9-5, 3.67 ERA): The 27-year-old righty has been inconsistent lately. In his last start against the last-place Cincinnati Reds, he was roughed up for four runs on two hits, including a home run, in just 1.2 innings of work. The start before that, however, he got the win against the Washington Nationals, allowing one run on five hits through six innings. 

Weather

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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Brewers are 1-4 in the last five games against Chicago. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs

Brewers vs Cubs picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Milwaukee Brewers have been in a battle with the St. Louis Cardinals for first place in the National League Central but are starting to lose the war. The Brewers have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games, still three games back of the Cards. 

Now they find themselves having to face the pesky Cubs, who lead the season series 7-6, including four of the last five meetings. While the Brewers are fighting for a postseason spot, the Cubs, 16 games out of first place, are left to play spoiler. 

The Brewers have struggled against teams in their own division: They’re 2-9 in their last 11 against NL Central teams, while also 1-5 in their last six games following a win, and 1-6 in their last seven on the road. 

The Cubs are 10-2 against pitchers with a WHIP greater than 1.30. And as good as many believe Alan Ashby will be, the second-year pitcher has been wildly inconsistent this season.

Ashby has faced the Cubs twice this season. The first appearance in April was in relief and he gave up the winning run for his first of 10 losses on the season. His second appearance against Chicago, he got the start, going six innings, allowing one run on five hits and getting the victory. 

Keegan Thompson needs to contain the Brewers just long enough for the Cubs offense to provide some runs. Chicago is ahead of the Brewers in batting average and hits, and should be able to exert that edge against inconsistent pitching. 

Prediction: Cubs moneyline (+123 at BetRivers)

Over/Under analysis

In the 13 games the Brewers and Cubs have faced each other, the Over has gone 7-5-1, and there’s no reason to think the Over won’t hit again on Friday. 

The Brewers have scored five or more runs in three of their last five games, while the Cubs have scored four or more runs in four of their last six. 

Both starting pitchers have a knack for allowing runs. Ashby has conceded six runs in his last two games, and in July gave up 16 runs in 25.2 innings. His ERA for August thus far is 5.06. 

Thompson has handed out even more runs. In three games in August, he’s allowed 10 runs in 12.1 innings. His ERA for the month is 7.30. 

For the Brewers, the Over is 6-2-1 in their last nine road games against a team with a losing record. 

More trends abound: Over is 9-3-1 for the Cubs in their last 13 games against a left-handed starter, and also 12-5-2 in the last 19 meetings between the two teams. 

Prediction: Over 9.0 (-110 at Caesars)

Best bet

In the games where these two teams have hit the Over, five or more runs were often scored before the fifth inning. In fact, in the last five games where the Over hit, five or more runs were scored before the fifth four times. 

It’s no wonder, since these teams can use the long ball so effectively. The Brewers are fourth in the majors in home runs with 157, while the Cubs are 17th with 118. 

Both starting pitchers are prone to giving up the long ball, especially of late. Ashby has allowed three homers in two games, while Thompson has allowed five in his last four games. 

Look at one or both pitchers getting touched early, and six runs being scored before the fifth inning. 

Pick: First five innings Over 5 (-105 BetMGM)

MLB parlays

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