Mets vs Phillies Picks and Predictions: Digging Deeper On Pitching Draw

In a tricky game to handicap, with very slim margins between starting pitchers, we need to look at variables like bullpens, rest, and the finer points of the price. We've done so for our MLB betting picks for Mets vs. Phillies — check out the best insights

Last Updated: Aug 19, 2022 3:39 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Aaron Nola Philadelphia Phillies MLB picks
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It's another pivotal National League divisional duel when the New York Mets meet the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Friday will kick off a four-game series for the two. The Mets come in off a tough series against the Atlanta Braves, losing three of four. However, the series opened up the division for a thrilling finish, and the Phillies will be looking to take advantage of that. 

Who will snag game one? Find out our MLB picks and predictions for Friday, August 19, 2022.

Mets vs Phillies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Phillies opened up as -130 favorites. Since then, the Mets have taken some money, and Philly has dropped to around -120, with New York returning at +108.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Phillies predictions

Picks made on 8/19/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Mets vs Phillies game info

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Phialdlephia, PA
Date: Friday, August 19, 2022
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: NBC 10, SNY

Mets vs Phillies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Chris Bassitt (10-7, 3.27 ERA): The least-heralded option for the Mets' starting pitching rotation has been pretty solid this season. Bassitt has done an incredible job of inducing soft contact against batters. His hard-hit rate, exit velocity, and barrel rate all rank within the Top 20% of qualified starting pitchers.

The weak points in his game are that he doesn't create enough swings and misses. That's evidenced in a below-average chase rate and whiff rate. However, even with that being the case, Bassitt still gets his fair share of strikeouts. His last outing came against this Phillies team, with five scoreless innings.

Aaron Nola (8-9, 3.07 ERA): There are a lot of similarities between Nola and the pitcher opposing him on the mound. Like his opponent, he is also near the league's top in hard-hit rate and exit velocity categories. However, unlike his opponent, he can have issues with opponents barrelling up the ball from time to time with a slightly below-average barrel rate.

Nola makes hay on batters chasing pitches outside the zone and racking up strikeouts. He has a great mix of pitches, with a fastball, curveball, and sinker comprising his arsenal. He went eight innings in his last outing, and that came against the Mets, posting eight strikeouts and giving up only one earned run. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Phillies are 3-0 this season with a rest advantage. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies

Mets vs Phillies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

On this surface, this seems like a pretty tricky handicap. The pitchers are relatively close to even, but I give Aaron Nola a slight edge. With that being said, I'm rolling with the Phillies today. They have multiple advantages that aren't the most easily identifiable. 

The Mets just finished up a pivotal, tough series with the Atlanta Braves in which the games were all closely contested, and their bullpen was heavily used. Pitchers such as Seth Lugo, Trevor May, and Adam Ottavino have all seen double-digit pitch counts in the last few days. That gives Philly a massive advantage today simply because they didn't play yesterday and before then didn't have a high usage rate against the Cincinnati Reds.

Situationally, this is a spot that bodes well for them. 

The Mets have only had a rest disadvantage four times this season, and they've split those games. However, if you zoom out a little further, you'll also see they’re winning just 47% of their games as a road underdog and 44% overall as an underdog this season. Conversely, the Phillies are 3-0 this season with a rest advantage and winning 57% of their games as the favorite.

I'm not typically a huge trends player when it comes to baseball. However, the circumstances around this one are unique. These pitchers are close to even and do similar things on the mound. Both do an excellent job of inducing soft contact, one has an issue with barrel rate, but he's not facing an opponent that can attack that effectively. I like this spot for the Phillies. My projections agree and give us a slight 5% edge vs. the current number. 

Prediction: Phillies moneyline (-120 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

The key to the handicap of this total is figuring out if the teams will have an advantage seeing a pitcher a second time in as many weeks. 

Both of these pitchers on the mound produced impressive performances in their last outing, and both came against the team they are facing today. This is a tough call, but a host of items make me grab the Over today. I feel the best about grabbing one team.

I've already pinpointed the bullpen issues I believe the Mets have today. They aren't fully rested, and there is a reasonable chance that Bassitt doesn't go too deep into the game. For whatever reason, he's averaging about five innings in his three appearances against the Phillies. That's not bad, but they'd like him to go deeper today. If he can't, it will work in the Phillies' favor. 

Another aspect I like here is the Phillies batting numbers when they've seen a pitcher a few times in a season. They go up a little bit each time, topping out when they see them for the fourth or higher time in a season. Like they will with Bassitt today. 

The Phillies didn't topple this number once in their last series with the Phillies, and I'm expecting that to change today. Our projections view this as fair value, and that's enough for me. 

Prediction: Phillies team total Over 3.5 (-132 at FanDuel)

Best bet

Let's play up a few narratives for our Best Bet.

I've talked about the uniqueness of this matchup and how the most significant edge comes on the bullpen side of things. With the Mets coming off a rough series against the Braves, they'll be eager to get on the bullpen early and score first. And with Nola's barrel issues being a thing, he'll see the few Mets hitters that can barrel up the ball early in the lineup.

Let's take a shot on the Phillies essentially grabbing a coming-from-behind victory. The set-up makes sense for it to happen, and it doesn't feel like it's priced exactly right. 

Pick: Mets to score first + Phillies to win (+320 at DraftKings)

MLB parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Mets vs. Phillies picks, you could win $125.33 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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