The Atlanta Braves are riding a seven-game winning streak, and will look to take the second game of a three-game set vs. the reigning NL champs in the Philadelphia Phillies, who took the 4-2 loss last night in the opener.
With some wind and possible wet conditions, will the Braves need to rely on some other ways to score tonight vs. a starting pitcher in Aaron Nola who is susceptible to the stolen base?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Phillies on Wednesday, June 21.
Braves vs Phillies odds
Braves vs Phillies predictions
With Aaron Nola seemingly not the same pitcher he was last year as he's allowing more walks, getting fewer strikeouts, and struggling to keep the ball in the park, it’s a good day to target some Atlanta offensive props especially with the Braves sitting as +110 underdogs.
Nola is one of the best pitchers to target for a stolen base today. His 0.07 SB/IP is the highest on the slate next to AJ Smith-Shawver, who has allowed two swipes over his first 13-plus innings in the majors.
Nola has had 13 stolen-base attempts vs. him this season, with nine successful. That puts him in the Top 11 of most swipes allowed this year.
The Braves are a slightly better-than-average running team and have 52 swipes on the season, with Ronald Acuna Jr. accounting for a whopping 31 of those, or a 60% stolen-base share. Only Esteury Ruiz has more steals than the NL MVP frontrunner.
Acuna is one of eight batters in baseball currently getting on base at a .400 clip, which is why he can attempt 37 steals over 73 games. The Atlanta leadoff man has also seen Nola a ton (40 at-bats) and has a .350 average, with four successful stolen bases vs. the Phillies starter.
The best price for Acuna to steal another bag is +310 at BetRivers or Kambi books, which are great odds considering some books are as low as +210. I’d take the Over on +240 or better, especially when THE BAT is projecting 4.55 plate appearances and 0.33 stolen bases, with the +310 price implying 0.25 SBs.
My best bet: Acuna Over 0.5 stolen bases (+310)
Braves vs Phillies same-game parlay
Acuna Over 0.5 stolen bases
Turner Over 0.5 stolen bases
Nothing crazy here, just taking a pair of stolen bases in a matchup that is projecting a decent amount of swipes. Both players are projected to steal over 0.33 bases today and are +EV at those current solo prices.
Acuna has 60% of his team's stolen bases and has a great matchup vs. Nola, whom he has already stolen four bases against. Trea Turner is getting on base at a .345 clip over the last 14 days. which is up from his .298 OBP on the season. He's 4-for-4 in swipes over his last nine games.
Smith-Shawver has seen three stolen-base attempts over his first two MLB starts, with two of those being successful. Sean Murphy is also questionable and has thrown out 12 baserunners this year. I'm getting better than true odds with this SGP.
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Braves vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Atlanta closed as a -148 road favorite in the MLB odds last night in a starting pitching matchup that favored the Braves with Spencer Strider vs. Ranger Suarez. Now Aaron Nola will be priced as a slight home favorite after the Phillies opened at -120 and have moved to -130. The total has also seen some movement, going from 9 to 8.5
The move to the Under may be weather related. There is a 50 percent chance of rain and 16-mph winds are blowing in, which is going to make going deep much harder. The weather will aid both pitchers. Nola’s HR/FB rate has jumped by four points this year, while the younger Atlanta starter gave up two bombs to a light-hitting Colorado lineup in his last start.
If this game is going to be played uninterrupted, the weather should favor Nola more, who has allowed a homer in 11 straight starts and in 12 of his 13 turns this year. However, with the weather being slightly unpredictable, it’s hard to base a handicap on it. For what it’s worth, the Braves’ offense is more reliant on the long ball than the Phillies' and could also be the reason for the home side getting shorter despite facing the No. 1 offense in the NL.
Although many bettors will be quick to get the Braves as a plus-money dog, it’s tough to ignore the movement towards the home side which could be backed by the weather. Atlanta could be without Sean Murphy again, who has missed two games and will likely need to use some weak middle-relief options with Smith-Shawver not projected to get deep. Don’t be fooled by the price of the Braves tonight, as the Phillies were also riding a long win streak heading into the series.
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Trend to know
The Braves are 2-5 in the last seven meetings in Philadelphia. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies
Braves vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 21, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
AJ Smith-Shawver (1-0, 2.03 ERA): Rookie Smith-Shawver is coming off his first career MLB win and will be making his third big-league start. This will be the toughest start of his short career, as he has faced the Rockies and Nationals so far. He has an 11:4 K/BB ratio over 13.1 innings (three games) and has allowed two long balls. The 20-year-old right-hander started the season at Single-A, is a former seventh-round pick, and a four-pitch pitcher who sits mid-90s with his fastball. THE BAT is projecting 80 pitches, 13.5 outs, 4.51 strikeouts, and 2.80 earned runs.
Aaron Nola (6-5, 4.66 ERA): Nola is coming off 250 innings of work in 2022 thanks to a playoff run, and the season has not been as expected for the right-hander. He is getting deep, averaging 6 1/3 innings of work over 15 starts. He carries a 93:24 K/BB ratio into tonight but has seen his BB% and HR/FB rate increase from last season. The Phillies are 7-8 when Nola starts, and THE BAT projects for 102 pitches, 19.1 outs, 6.73 strikeouts, and 2.72 earned runs.
