Braves vs Mets Picks and Predictions: No Offense at Citi

Atlanta struggles against quality pitching and the Mets struggle to score at home, leading us to side with the Under for Wednesday night's contest that features a pitching matchup of Tylor Megill and Max Fried. Find out more with our Braves vs. Mets picks.

Last Updated: Jul 28, 2021 10:10 AM ET Read Time: 5 min
Tylor Megill New York Mets MLB
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The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets have seen plenty of each other lately as Wednesday’s meeting will be the fourth game in three days with the series finale coming tomorrow. 

Atlanta scored in five of the first six innings yesterday in a 12-5 rout of the Mets to take a 2-1 series lead. The Mets opened Wednesday's game as -125 favorites with the total set at a flat 8.

Here are our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Braves vs. Mets on July 28.

Braves vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, New York City, NY
Date: Wednesday, July 28, 2021
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports South, WPIX

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Starting pitchers

Max Fried (7-6, 4.46 ERA): The Braves lefty has been a mixed bag over four July starts where the starter has posted a 5.32 ERA with a WHIP over 1.50. Traveling has been even worse for the left-hander as he owns a 6.55 ERA on the road over seven road starts. Fried, however, has navigated the Mets’ lineup well this year as he has allowed three runs over 11 innings with eight hits over two starts. 

Tylor Megill (1-0, 2.10 ERA): The 6-foot-7 rookie right-hander picked up his first MLB win in his last outing where he tossed six innings of two-hit ball against a potent Toronto lineup. Megill needed just 78 pitches to get through the six scoreless frames and has run his scoreless-inning streak to 12 innings. The righty has been a massive boost to the Mets’ rotation. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Braves: Joc Pederson OF (Questionable), Ronald Acuna OF (Out).
Mets:  Francisco Lindor SS (Out), Jose Peraza SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0 in Fried’s last six starts as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets.

Moneyline pick

The Braves managed just two runs across a pair of doubleheader games on Monday but erupted for 12 last night thanks to Austin Riley’s six RBI. Picking up a win on Wednesday may be a little more difficult for the Braves with the rookie Megill toeing the rubber for New York.

Atlanta posted 10 runs against Tuesday starter Jerad Eickhoff but Megill will be tougher, as he hasn’t allowed a run over his last two starts and is becoming an efficient MLB pitcher, needing just 171 pitches to get through his last 12 innings. The young right-hander has surrendered just nine hits and a single walk across those two starts. He hasn’t given up a long ball across his last three outings and opponents are hitting just .133 against his slider which also hasn’t been hit for an extra-base hit yet (.144 SLG).

Atlanta’s offense has looked deceivingly good at times but the quality of the opponent has been a big factor. Sure they can get 10 runs off Eickhoff, who has already been designated for assignment twice this year, but the Braves have also struggled to hit good pitching this week.

Atlanta saw Marcus Stroman, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Yu Darvish over the last seven days and failed to score more than two runs against any one of them. Of the 26 1-3 innings versus those four pitchers, the Atlanta bats scored just six runs on 23 hits — good for a 2.07 ERA against. 

The Mets still managed 10 hits and five runs in yesterday's loss despite going 1-for-7 with RISP. They sit atop the NL East by 3.5 games and have the third-best home record in the NL at 31-17 SU. 

The New York lineup has been rolling out of the break as they lead all of baseball in wRC+ and are slashing .275/.353/.485. Their walk rates are up and the team is striking out at under 20 percent. We like the home side on Wednesday night.

PREDICTION: New York (-125)

Over/Under pick

The Braves are 6-6 O/U to begin the second half while the Mets are 5-7 O/U. New York owns the best home Under record in baseball with a 14-28 O/U mark on the season. They are the lowest-scoring team at home in MLB at 3.56 runs per match at Citi Field but they have been equally as good at stopping runs there, too.

On the road, the Mets are giving up a robust 4.86 runs per game, but it has been a different story at home. Their 2.75 runs allowed per game is over half a run better than the next best home team, which equates to a 2.60 ERA at home. That's tough to ignore.

Megill has only made six MLB starts and teams are still adjusting to the rookie — and failing to do so. This will be Atlanta’s third look at the Mets’ starter and the right-hander has given up five earned runs but he allowed just eight hits over nine-plus innings, which were his first two MLB starts. Megill also struck out 12 Atlanta batters and has 33 punchouts over his first 30 MLB innings.

The New York bullpen will also be at full strength after a bullpen day in the second game of the doubleheader on Monday and some mop-up duties last night. The Mets’ bullpen has been inside the Top 12 for ERA this year and is pitching to a 3.74 ERA so far in the second half. 

Based on Atlanta’s struggles against quality pitching and New York's issues putting up runs at Citi Field, we're siding with the Under.

PREDICTION: Under 8 (-110)

Braves vs Mets betting card

  • New York (-125)
  • Under 8 (-110)

Picks made on 7/28/2021 at 5:11 a.m. ET

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