Blue Jays vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Fenway Slugfest

Toronto has a big starting pitching advantage for the first game of Wednesday's doubleheader with Robbie Ray getting the ball in a matchup versus Boston's Garrett Richards. Expect a lot of offense and back the road favorites in this AL East clash.

Posted: Jul 28, 2021 9:35 AM ET Updated: Jul 28, 2021 9:35 AM ET Est Time: 4 min
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Marcus Semien Toronto Blue Jays MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox have won six of seven games after coming from behind in the eighth inning to down the Toronto Blue Jays in Monday's series opener. 

After Tuesday's game was postponed, Toronto and Boston will play a split doubleheader Wednesday with the first contest starting at 2:10 p.m. ET. The pitching matchup features Garrett Richards and Robbie Ray, with the first-place Red Sox coming in as a +120 underdog.

Find out who we like in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox on July 28.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date: Wednesday, July 28, 2021
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
TV: NESN, Rogers Sportsnet

Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds

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Blue Jays vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Robbie Ray (8-5, 3.12 ERA): Ray turned in his first poor start in a long time in his last time out against the Red Sox, surrendering four runs for the first time since May 27. Sandwiched between those outings was a nine-start run in which the southpaw posted a 2.11 ERA while striking out 12.7 batters per nine innings. 

Garrett Richards (6-5, 4.99 ERA): The Boston right-hander has allowed four or more runs in five of his last seven starts, which includes his last outing against these same Blue Jays. He has battled poor control, put up pedestrian strikeout numbers, and been victimized by the long ball, leading to a forgettable first season in Boston. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Blue Jays: Danny Jansen C (Out), Tyler Chatwood RP (Out).
Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts SS (Probable), Danny Santana OF (Out), Christina Arroyo 3B (Out), Marwin Gonzalez 3B (Out), Hirokazu Sawamura RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.

Moneyline pick

In a rematch of a June 21 clash that the Red Sox won 7-4, Richards and Ray will once again go toe-to-toe a game after Toronto lost for the fifth time in its last six contests. Three of those losses have come against the Red Sox, who have started the second half on a 7-3 run after dropping four of five before the All-Star break.

Toronto, which is clinging on in the playoff race and sits four games back of the second wildcard spot in the AL, needs to get back on track fast. And it has the right guy on the mound to do just that. 

Ray has been a major surprise this season as Toronto's top pitcher. The typically wild, yet talented, lefty has corrected control issues that have persistently held him back and is issuing free passes at the lowest rate of his career and posting a personal-best strikeout-to-walk mark. He's punching out batters as well as ever, turning himself into a legitimate weapon and a pitcher who can dominate even the best of lineups. 

Home runs have hurt Ray but they've hurt Richards, too. Both arms will have big offenses to try to navigate through but Toronto has a clear starting pitching advantage for this matchup

Richards has thrown poorly against Toronto this season and, to be fair, just about everyone else. He can't be trusted versus a Toronto lineup that leads the majors in OPS, powered by the individual leader in OPS, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who took Richards deep the last time he faced him.

As a -140 road favorite behind Ray, we're backing the Blue Jays.

PREDICTION: Toronto (-140)

Over/Under pick

When we wrote up the Ray-Richards matchup last week, we took the Blue Jays on the ML and the Over, and that's exactly what we're doing again.

It's a high number for a seven-inning game with the O/U total at 9.0, but Richards can't handle these Blue Jays and Ray's homer issues against a powerful Red Sox lineup are sure to surface at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. While Fenway isn't the greatest home run-hitting stadium, the Green Monster and its dimensions have led to it being an extra-base hitting paradise and the second-best run-producing environment outside of Coors Field over the last three years.

These teams can mash, with Boston trailing only the Blue Jays and Astros in OPS, while the two AL East rivals lead the majors in slugging. Toronto has hit more homers than any AL team, while the Red Sox rank seventh in MLB. They are third and fourth in runs per game.

Ray allowed three homers in his last start against Boston and has the third-highest home-run-to-fly-ball rate and homers allowed per nine innings mark among qualified pitchers.

As for Richards, the Over has cashed in 11 of his 19 starts, including the previous duel with Ray. He was lucky to get through the outing with only four runs allowed after serving up three bombs himself. He has a 5.64 ERA in four starts versus Toronto this season and has been brutal at home, pitching to a 6.55 ERA with opponents batting .347 against him.

The Under has cashed in five straight Red Sox games — expect that trend to end this afternoon. 

PREDICTION: Over 9.0 (-105)

Blue Jays vs Red Sox betting card

  • Toronto (-140)
  • Over 9.0 (-105)

Picks made on 7/28/2021 at 9:18 a.m. ET

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