This weekend, we get treated to a matchup of two of the best and most exciting young players in baseball as Ronald Acuna and the Atlanta Braves take on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays.
Despite being loaded with talent, both teams have gotten off to inconsistent starts this season, so who has the MLB betting edge in Game 1 when Drew Smyly toes the rubber against Robbie Ray?
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Braves vs. Blue Jays on Friday, April 30, with first pitch scheduled for 7:37 p.m. ET.
Braves vs Blue Jays odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonToronto opened as a -120 favorite this morning at PointsBet USA, initially receded to -115, then rebounded to -135, where the line has spent much of the day. As of 4 p.m. ET, the Blue Jays are taking 58 percent of tickets and 78 percent of cash on the moneyline. The total is stable at 10.5, seeing only a modest price adjustment from Under -115 to a flat -110, with the Over getting 52 percent of tickets/76 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameBraves vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Drew Smyly (0-1, 7.20 ERA): It's been a tough start to the 2021 season for Smyly. The lefty has been roughed up in each of his last two starts, giving up 11 runs in nine innings, which includes five dingers.
Robbie Ray (0-1, 2.81 ERA): Robbie Ray starts are always an adventure, but if he can cut down the walks, as he did in his last start, he can still be an effective MLB pitcher. After surrendering nine walks in his first two starts, Ray didn’t allow one base-on-balls last time out, while striking out nine. Simply, put if he is locating his fastball, Ray is hard to hit.
Weather
Weather in Dunedin Friday night will be partly cloudy and 43 degrees with an 8 mph wind blowing east. There's only a 2 percent chance of rain, with humidity at 82 percent.
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Braves: Chris Martin RP (Out), Ender Inciarte OF (Out).
Blue Jays: Julian Merryweather RP (Out), Thomas Hatch RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Braves' last four interleague road games and 4-0-1 in Blue Jays' last five games as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Blue Jays.
Moneyline pick
The Braves come into this sitting at 12-12 after seeing their three-game winning streak get snapped by the Chicago Cubs last time out. Likewise, the Blue Jays are also coming off a loss after winning four of their previous five.
The reason for the Braves' inconsistency has been their pitching staff. Now, it doesn’t help that their two best starters, Max Fried and Mike Soroka are both hurt, but it shouldn’t be this bad. The Braves rank 25th in team ERA and 27th in opponent OPS and Smyly is not the guy you’re looking at to change that.
Smyly has an opponent OPS of .913 and has allowed six dingers. Now, he has to deal with a Jays lineup featuring the red-hot Vladdy and is getting back George Springer and Teoscar Hernandez. And when Smyly has to hand the ball off, it’s to a bullpen that ranks 18th in ERA and 26th in WHIP.
The Braves’ lineup is even more dangerous than the Jays', but they’ve got the tougher matchup against Ray and a surprisingly strong Blue Jays bullpen. Take the home team to get the job done in this one.
PREDICTION: Blue Jays (-130)
Over/Under pick
When it comes to the total, it’s not surprising the opening number was hammered, considering Smyly’s penchant for giving up the long ball, Ray’s often inconsistent command, and two more-than-capable offenses. But this number is now really high.
In fact, it’s the highest total the Braves have seen all season, by 1.5 runs. The Blue Jays on the other hand have had six games with double-digit totals, with the Under going 3-2-1.
While it won’t be surprising if Smyly gets lit up, the Jays bats have proven inconsistent so far this season, ranking 21st in batting average. And if it is one of those "Ray can’t find the zone" games, Jays’ manager Charlie Montoyo can hand the ball to a bullpen that leads the MLB in ERA.
This one should sneak Under this elevated number.
PREDICTION: Under 10.5 (-110)
Braves vs Blue Jays betting card
- Blue Jays (-130)
- Under 10.5 (-110)
Picks made on 4/30/2021 at 1:10 p.m. ET
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