The Toronto Blue Jays enter Sunday in a wild-card spot and above .500 for the first time since April as they aim to sweep their three-game set against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium.
My Blue Jays vs. Royals prediction breaks down why Toronto (-120 favorite) should soar to victory in a game that will feature weak pitching and plenty of scoring.
Dive into my free MLB picks for 2:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 6.
Blue Jays vs Royals predictions
Blue Jays vs Royals best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-120)
Randy Dobnak’s stats look fine on paper (2.65 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), but the Kansas City Royals starter has benefited from a lot of good fortune according to the underlying numbers. Dobnak’s xERA ranks in the 21st percentile (4.79), while his xBA is in the second percentile (.290).
He’ll face a Toronto Blue Jays offense that has been on fire since Aug. 28. Toronto is 7-1 over that span with a .283 team batting average (second) and a .347 wOBA (4th).
Dobnak surrendered three earned runs over six innings to the Jays on Aug. 26, and he’s given up a total of nine earned runs over his last two starts.
COVERS INTEL: Blue Jays starter Spencer Arrighetti throws his curveball more than 33% of the time — a pitch type the Royals struggle against. Kansas City ranks 24th in OPS (.587) and wOBA (.261) vs. the curveball.
Blue Jays vs Royals same-game parlay (SGP)
Spencer Arrighetti may find some success with his curveball, but the underlying numbers are not kind to him, either. He sports a 5.16 xERA while ranking in the 26th percentile in pitching run value.
Dobnak will also be followed by the second-worst bullpen in baseball (5.05 ERA), so there should be weak pitching and plenty of scoring for both teams today.
Brett Bateman continues to swing a hot bat with six hits over his last four games — all singles. Bateman leads the Blue Jays with 27 singles since his MLB debut on Aug. 7.
Blue Jays vs Royals SGP
- Blue Jays moneyline
- Over 9.5
- Brett Bateman Over 0.5 singles
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Blue Jays vs Royals home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+450)
Kazuma Okamoto is Toronto’s only legit home run threat this season, and I like his matchup against Dobnak.
Okamoto has hit seven of his 28 dingers against the sinker, which is Dobnak’s most common pitch (39.4%). Kauffman Stadium is also a very hitter-friendly ballpark, tied for fifth in Park Factor according to Statcast (102).
I'd play Okamoto up to +440.
- Best bets: 9-9, -1.47 units
Blue Jays vs Royals odds
- Moneyline: Toronto -120 | Kansas City +100
- Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+135) | Kansas City +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Blue Jays vs Royals trend
It’ll be a warm day at Kauffman Stadium with temperatures in the mid-90s and light winds blowing in from right field. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Royals.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Royals and game info
| Location | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Royals.TV, SN |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Spencer Arreghetti (7-8, 4.82 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher | Randy Dobnak (2-3, 2.65 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Royals latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Royals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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