Blue Jays vs Guardians Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Carlos Carrasco's been in rough shape this season, and our MLB picks think even a floundering Blue Jays lineup can mess with the Guardians' embattled starter tonight.

Andrew Caley - Senior Betting Analyst at
Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst
Jun 21, 2024 • 14:12 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The Toronto Blue Jays need to bounce back in a big way when they visit the Cleveland Guardians for the opener of a three-game set on Friday night. My Blue Jays vs. Guardians predictions don’t hate their chances.

That’s because the Guardians hand the ball to a struggling Carlos Carrasco while Jays’ prospect Orelvis Martinez is expected to make his big-league debut. Hopefully, Martinez can bring some much-needed pop to this Toronto lineup.

My MLB picks for Friday, June 21 highlight why we can believe in the Jays bats, at least for one night.

Blue Jays vs Guardians prediction

My best bet
Blue Jays team total Over 4.5 (+110 at PROLINE+)

My analysis

The Toronto Blue Jays need a win in a big way following being swept away at home against the rival Boston Red Sox. Luckily, they get a good matchup tonight when they visit the Cleveland Guardians in the opener of a three-game weekend set. 

The Blue Jays and Guardians just played in Toronto last week, with the Jays taking two of the three games. One of those was started by Cleveland's struggling  Carlos Carrasco, and you can probably guess who’s getting the ball tonight.

Carrasco’s second stint in Cleveland has been a little rough. The 37-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 5.13 expected ERA while surrendering a .275 expected batting average and is striking out just 16.9% of batters faced. Those rank in the 11th, 14th, and 15th percentiles respectively.

That’s a good thing for a Blue Jays lineup that has been one of the more inconsistent in the American League this season, but they have been middle of the pack against right-handed pitchers, ranking 16th in wRC+ and 17th in OPS. Here’s hoping prospect Orelvis Martinez, who's expected to make his MLB debut tonight, is able to give this lineup some more pop. He has 15 home runs in Triple-A Buffalo this season.

And, like I said, the Jays have had recent success against Carrasco. The veteran is making his second consecutive start against Toronto, with the June 15 meeting lasting just five innings, where he got tagged for five earned runs on six hits and two walks.

The Blue Jays won that matchup 5-0, and it appears that the team is starting to give their young hitters like Martinez, Spencer Horwitz, and Davis Schnieder a bigger role in the offense. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still anchoring the lineup, the Blue Jays have a great opportunity to top their team total in this one. 

And frankly, if the Blue Jays can’t take flight against Carrasco, things might be as bad as they seem in Toronto at the moment.

Blue Jays star player prop

My best bet
Justin Turner Over 0.5 RBIs (+165 at PROLINE+)

While the youth movement in Toronto is certainly on, some of the old dogs are still doing their thing, including designated hitter Justin Turner.

The veteran slugger has had quite the up-and-down season to this point. Turner came out of the gates flying for his new team; however, he was in a slump for basically the entirety of May. But you knew Turner was too good a hitter for that to last for too long, and he has bounced back in June.

The 39-year-old has found his rhythm and is hitting .318 with a .878 OPS over 14 games this month. Turner also has solid advanced numbers against Carrasco. He’s 2-6 with a double and a home run, which works out to a .586 expected slugging percentage.

Turner has been a staple in the middle of the Blue Jays batting lineup, particularly since he’s busted out of his slump, and he should have ample opportunities to drive in a run against the embattled Carrasco. At this price, there's value in Turner to go Over 0.5 RBIs in this matchup.

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Blue Jays vs Guardians odds

Blue Jays vs Guardians live odds

Blue Jays vs Guardians opening odds

  • Run line: Toronto +1.5 -180 | Cleveland -1.5 +150
  • Moneyline: Toronto +100 | Cleveland -120
  • Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5

Blue Jays vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Jays and Guardians are 5-5 across their last 10 matchups. 

  • Toronto's shaky offense has seen it hitting Unders with regularity, at 32-40-3 on the season.

  • Cleveland is the MLB's fourth-best team against the run line this season, going 42-30-0.

Blue Jays vs Guardians trend

The Blue Jays have only hit the moneyline in 23 of their last 53 games (-13.65 Units / -19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Guardians.

Blue Jays vs Guardians game info

Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Date: Friday, 6-21-2024
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports Great Lakes
Blue Jays starting pitcher: Yariel Rodriguez
(0-1, 4.11 ERA)
Guardians starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
(2-6, 5.80 ERA)

Blue Jays vs Guardians latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Guardians weather

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