The opener between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Atlanta Braves pretty much went to script. Starting pitching kept the Jays in it for a while, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. drove in a run.
My Blue Jays vs. Braves predictions for this September 7 affair expect more of the same tonight, with Toronto holding the lead through the first five frames. Find out why in my MLB picks!
Blue Jays vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays five-inning moneyline (+125 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Despite being underdogs in this game, the Toronto Blue Jays have an edge when it comes to the starting pitching matchup as veteran Jose Berrios will toe the rubber against Atlanta Braves rookie Spencer Schwellenbach.
Berrios’ season has featured plenty of ups and downs — like most of his teammates — but there is no doubt he enters this matchup dealing.
The RHP might have been in the conversation for AL Pitcher of the Month if not for his teammate Bowden Francis. Berrios is sporting a 1.56 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .200 batting average over his last five starts — each of which has lasted a minimum of six innings.
And while this Braves lineup is still tough, it hasn’t been as good as we’ve come to expect the last few years. Right-handed pitchers in particular have been a problem: Atlanta enters this game ranking 19th in batting average, 18th in OPS, and 20th in wRC+ vs. righties.
Meanwhile, Schwellenbach has been a pretty solid addition to the Braves rotation, especially for a rookie. The RHP is also in a groove (2.57 ERA and .200 BA against over his last seven starts), but he’s still a rookie, and I can’t get away from the value with the Jays here.
Toronto's lineup since the trade deadline has been much better, led by the white-hot Vladimir Guerrero Jr. In fact, the Jays rank ninth in batting average, eighth in OPS and sixth in wRC+ since coming out of the All-Star break.
I’ll take Toronto to have a lead through five innings so we can avoid bets involving the Jays’ sketchy bullpen.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+190 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
You had to know I was riding with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. again. The star first baseman continues to rake at a ridiculous rate, tallying another hit and an RBI in last night’s loss. He’s now hitting .327 with 28 home runs and 93 RBI.
It was also the fourth consecutive game — and the seventh time in his last 11 — he drove in at least one run. The guy is just locked in. He’s also collected hits in 10 of his last 11 where he has a .455 batting average and a 1.227 OPS.
Despite all this, sportsbooks continue to give us good value in Vladdy’s RBI market. Today, you can get Over 0.5 RBI at +190, which, according to our MLB player prop projections, makes it a five-star play.
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Blue Jays vs Braves odds
Blue Jays vs Braves live odds
Blue Jays vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +150 | Atlanta -180
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 -140 | Atlanta -1.5 +120
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-110) | Under 8.0 (-110)
Blue Jays vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as +150 road underdogs, but early bettors have seen some value in the road dog, with Toronto now sitting in the +140 range.
- It makes sense the way Berrios is pitching, but the Blue Jays bullpen has the third-worst ERA in baseball and will keep me to the five-inning moneyline instead of the full game.
- The total hit the board at an even 8.0, and that's where it remains as of Saturday afternoon.
- I would lean Under here considering the way both starters are pitching.
Blue Jays vs Braves trend
The Blue Jays have hit the run line in 24 of their last 34 away games for +11.85 Units and a 23% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Braves.
Blue Jays vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Southeast |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Jose Berrios (14-9, 3.59 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Spencer Schwellenbach (5-6, 3.72 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Braves latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Braves weather
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